Pages tagged with "Believe in Scotland"

Deprivation is a useful measure to identify areas of the country that are experiencing significant disadvantage. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) uses statistics on income, employment, health, education, access to services, crime and housing to calculate the level of deprivation across all regions of Scotland. Last year, levels of deprivation fell in Glasgow City, Renfrewshire and City of Edinburgh compared to SIMD 2016. Glasgow City demonstrated the greatest fall, from 48% of data zones in the 20% most deprived areas in Scotland, to 44%.

However, the UK Government has not privatised solving deprivation and so, a UK-wide index of multiple deprivation does not exist. Therefore, it is difficult to compare levels of disadvantage in areas of Scotland and other regions of the UK. As a result, this article will offer a comparison of GDP per head of population, one of the common indicators of deprivation and disadvantage, within the UK and across the EU.

10 Regions of UK with lowest GDP per head (2018)

As this table demonstrates, of the 10 regions with the lowest GDP per head in the UK, only one area is within Scotland. Meanwhile, 8 of the regions are within England and one is in Wales. This suggests that economic inequality is a greater problem in the rest of the UK than it is in Scotland.

Furthermore, it is interesting to compare these figures to the EU-27 countries average GDP per head of population. Indeed, it has been implied that regions within the UK have struggled to keep pace with the rest of Europe since the financial crash in 2008.

In 2018, GDP at market prices in the EU-27 was valued at 13.5 trillion euros, equivalent to an average of 30,200 euros per person (approximately £26,195.63).

UK NUTS 2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) Regions with GDP per head lower than EU-27 Average

This table highlights that many regions across the UK continue to lag behind many European countries in terms of GDP per capita. Indeed, 14 NUTS 2 regions in the UK have a GDP per head lower than the EU-27 average. Of these regions only 1 is in Scotland, 1 is in Wales, 1 is in Northern Ireland and 11 are in England.

The major exception

While we have demonstrated that deprivation and inequality are rife across England, there continues to be one major exception – London. In fact, this is a huge part of the problem. In 2018, data from the Office for National Statistics showed that London recorded a 1.1% annual rise in output per person to £54,700. Meanwhile, in the North East, growth was only 0.4%, rising to just £23,600 per head. This shows a further widening of the per capita gap between the richest and poorest regions of the country.

We have recognised for years that the key issue at play here is that the UK is far too centralised around London and the South East. Seven years ago, at Business for Scotland, we said that “power, money, opportunity and influence has been drained from the rest of the country for generations towards a metropolis that has developed its own financial and capitalist culture which sits a world apart from the distant regions and nations that make up the wider UK” and unfortunately, this still applies today but to an even greater degree. Ultimately, this constant investment in London and the financial sector has resulted in huge disparity across England, and harmed the other nations of the UK, including Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Further mismanagement

The past year has undoubtedly been a challenging one for many countries across the world, with the COVID-19 pandemic having drastic consequences for economies and healthcare systems worldwide. However, adding a hard Brexit deal to the equation has only worsened matters, particularly with regards to deprivation. Indeed, studies have found that there is a high risk that the economic impacts of COVID-19 and Brexit will further increase regional disparities. In particular, already deprived areas such as the North East, Wales and Outer London are likely to be hardest hit by Brexit. Meanwhile, tourism dependent coastal communities and hospitality dependent cities such as Manchester and Liverpool are already facing drastic consequences as a result of COVID-19.

These struggles are only emphasised by the lack of support displayed by the UK Government. Indeed, new research has shown that if the Chancellor’s plans to cut Universal Credit go ahead, millions of individuals will be left without the income needed to afford the minimum living standard and the Scottish Child Payment will be undermined. Indeed, after years of austerity, followed by the chaos of Brexit and a global pandemic, such policy decisions will only cause further deprivation and inequality in the UK, particularly in England where great disparity already exists. This highlights that as a result of UK Government mismanagement and the already severe levels of inequality, certain impoverished areas in England are likely to suffer further in the coming months and years.

Southern Scotland

This region is the only area of Scotland that is within the 10 regions of the UK with the lowest GDP per head and holds a GDP per capita lower than the EU-27 average. However, it is important to note that this situation is gradually improving and the GPD per head of population in this region has significantly improved since 2011. In 2011, Southern Scotland’s GDP per head was £16,142. Meanwhile, the EU-27 average was approximately £22,346. This means that Southern Scotland’s GDP per head was approximately 72% of the EU-27 average in 2011. However, in 2018, this figure had risen to 76%, demonstrating the gradual increase of GDP per head and the closing gap between Southern Scotland and the EU-27 average.

Scottish Government Approach

So, let’s see why Scotland is leading the way in reducing such deprivation. One of the key ways to tackle deprivation is through education. Indeed, the Scottish Government recently announced the investment of £215million to benefit pupils in Scotland’s most deprived communities.

An area in which the Scottish Government has also invested in to reduce deprivation and inequality is affordable housing. Indeed, in the 2021-22 budget, £711.6 million was dedicated to affordable housing and a new £55 million programme was put in place to support town centres.

Another critical example that extends to the wider community is the Empowering Communities Fund. This programme was established in 2015 and has already had huge benefits for deprived communities in Scotland. To date, the programme has helped hundreds of projects that create change in disadvantaged communities through training, employment, healthy eating and volunteering opportunities.

It is clear that reducing inequalities and deprivation is a key ambition of the Scottish Government and one that is continuously being met, with levels of deprivation reducing across the country.

Conclusions

It is evident that inequalities and uneven levels of deprivation across the UK continue to be a significant problem. However, it is also clear that Scotland is continually challenging these inequalities and the Scottish Government is working to ensure that levels of GDP per head in Scotland match the average of EU countries.

FOOTBALL

A Scottish student became the first black football player to play at an international level 140 years ago.

Andrew Watson played three matches for Scotland between 1881 and 1882. He was the son of a rich Scottish sugar planter, Peter Miller Watson, and studied natural philosophy,  mathematics and engineering at the University of Glasgow.

He first played football for Maxwell in 1876 and then signed for Parkgrove, where he played alongside another black player Robert Walker.

He won the first of three caps for Scotland in March 1881, and he captained the Scottish side which defeated England 6-1

He signed for Queen’s Park – then Scotland’s largest football team – in April 1880 and became their secretary in November the following year.

He won the first of three caps for Scotland in March 1881, and he captained the Scottish side which defeated England 6-1. Can Scotland pull off a repeat performance today? It has been reported that there are plans to erect a statue of Andrew Watson outside Hampden.

THE LAW

Women were appointed to two of the most senior legal roles in Scotland for the first time this week.

MSPs confirmed the appointment of Dorothy Bain QC as the new Lord Advocate and Ruth Charteris QC was chosen as Scotland’s next solicitor general.

It is the first time women have held both roles at the same time. When she proposed the appointments at Holyrood this week First Minister Nicola Sturgeon underlined their historic nature.

 PERIOD POVERTY

In July 2017 Scotland became the first country in the world to provide free sanitary products to low-income women. An initial six-months trial was so successful the scheme was rolled out across the country.

MSPs unanimously passed the Period Products  (Free Provision) (Scotland) Act in November 2020. A survey in February 2019 showed that period poverty had afflicted more than a quarter of women in the UK.  Research revealed that 27% of women had at times been unable to afford sanitary products.

The problem had forced women to miss either work or school. The initiative was introduced after research by Women for Independence.

RENEWABLES

Scotland has become a world leader in renewable energy. It produced enough electricity from renewable sources to meet 97.4% of its needs in 2020, only narrowly missing the 100% target.

Wind turbines in Scotland produced enough energy in the first six months of 2019 alone to meet twice the country’s domestic requirements

Output has tripled over the past decade, producing enough power for the equivalent of seven million households.

Wind power is the fastest growing renewable energy technology and wind turbines in Scotland produced enough energy in the first six months of 2019 alone to meet twice the country’s domestic requirements.

Scotland possesses more than a quarter of the UK’s renewable energy generation and 90% of its hydropower.

CLIMATE CHANGE

All eyes will be on Glasgow in November, when the city will host the 26^th UN Climate Change Conference.

A major TV, radio and digital campaign – Let’s Do Net Zero – has already been launched in Scotland to raise awareness of climate change and biodiversity loss.

Scotland is committed to reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. The summit is one of a number of initiatives expected to benefit from Glasgow green energy projects worth £13m.

The SNP’s Social Justice and Fairness Commission recently published a report that sets out a road map to a fairer Scotland. At Business for Scotland, we have for several years supported many of the policies that have been proposed in this report.

Indeed, we are particularly happy to see that some of the concepts concerning fairer taxation that we have for years encouraged the Scottish government to adopt have been embraced within this report.

In 2019 Business for Scotland presented a report and plan on benefit corporation tax credits to Kate Forbes, who at that time held the position as the minister for public finance and digital economy.

So after years of promoting this concept and encouraging the Scottish government to support this idea of reforming the tax system and introducing incentives, we would like to offer a bit more detail on what exactly this type of taxation system could look like.

The UK taxation system

The UK’s tax system is widely recognised as dysfunctional. It is complex, ineffective and very centralised. Furthermore, any reforms that have been introduced have failed to keep up with economic and societal changes. The UK government often cuts corporation tax, which currently sits at 19%, in an attempt to make businesses more competitive and stimulate investment.

While it is true that too much tax can lower profitability and ultimately slow down private sector investment, this notion is not relevant to the UK’s current situation. Indeed, the UK government has no reserves and instead possesses a massive sovereign debt.

Cutting taxes will not stimulate the economy and will instead directly impact front line services

Furthermore, Brexit has greatly damaged private sector investment and the Covid-19 pandemic has had, and will continue to have, a critical and long-lasting impact on the economy.

Therefore, with the UK’s current economic situation looking rather grim, it is clear that cutting taxes will not stimulate the economy and will instead directly impact front line services.

Unified taxation powers

Corporation tax cuts can work, but only as part of a collection of flexible taxation powers and policies. For taxation policy to be successful it must involve a wide range of unified tax powers, otherwise the weight of taxation will be placed too heavily on one societal group. This issue has been recognised within the Social Justice and Fairness Commission’s report, highlighting that the burden of taxation must be shifted. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has revealed that “the total cost of poverty to the UK economy is in the region of £78bn per year”.

A more balanced approach to taxation can be achieved in an independent Scotland. Indeed, with progressive policies such as those that Business for Scotland have advocated for years and that have now been proposed in the SNP’s report, Scotland can achieve a fairer tax system.

Changing behaviour

In 2019, we suggested to the Scottish government that rather than implementing ‘something for nothing’ tax cuts, taxation should be incentivised. For example, solutions such as benefit corporation tax credits could be introduced.

In the commission’s report, it is stated that taxation should be “used to influence actions or behaviours that generate good outcomes for society.”

This complements our campaigning and the ideas that we have proposed within many of our articles and reports. For example, in a previous article we offered a hypothetical scenario in which this concept was implemented:

Imagine if Scotland decided to avoid corporation tax cuts and instead raised taxation by 1%. While some may fear a decline in competitiveness, we suggest that this could be resolved through the numerous benefits of linking corporate taxation to the business pledge.

Under this system, businesses that are willing to make positive changes to company behaviour and support a more equal society will pay less in tax

This pledge asks businesses to behave in a way that benefits the company, wider society and the economy by changing corporate behaviours. However, because there is currently no profit to be gained from signing this pledge, it is easily ignored. Therefore, we advise that corporations should be able to earn back this loss and also gain further tax credits by signing this pledge and positively changing their behaviour. This may involve targeted investment and corporate behaviours that help create a better, fairer and more prosperous Scotland.

Positive changes rewarded

Under this system, businesses that are willing to make positive changes to company behaviour and support a more equal society will pay less in tax.

This system will fund itself with its benefit/cost approach. For example, corporates that invest in environmentally sustainable practices would pay less in taxation, but their contribution to society would help efforts to tackle the climate crisis and boost Scotland’s environmental and recycling sectors.

This concept of incentivising corporate taxpayers will also improve the growing issue of tax evasion and avoidance that exists across the UK. With the obvious benefits of this system, corporates are more likely to pay their taxes and ultimately this will increase Scotland’s taxation revenues by several billion every year.

Conclusions

Firstly, it is evident that the people of Scotland and the Scottish government desire change to the current UK taxation system and this emphasises the need for the powers to do so to be devolved to the Scottish Parliament. Secondly, we welcome the Scottish government’s proposed changes to create a fairer taxation system, particularly the concept of incentivising corporate tax.

For years, Business for Scotland has promoted the idea of benefit corporation tax credits, and we are pleased to see that the road map for an independent Scotland involves this progressive concept to encourage the development of a fairer and more prosperous country.

Believe in Scotland, is calling on the grassroots Yes movement to join in a massive day of campaigning after lockdown ends.

Our crowdfunder is in its last week and the first £50,000 of donations were matched pound for pound by business donors so we hit our £50,000 target and business donor contributions took the total raised to £100,000. Since hitting that target we’ve received two more business donations, each pledging to match an extra £5,000 in donations. So the next £10,000 we receive is already effectively doubled and we will spend it on our indy day of action.

We have asked the National Yes Network to help co-ordinate a pan-Scotland action day featuring street stalls, coffee mornings, open days at local Yes hubs and a mass leaflet drop.  The National newspaper will be the media partner for the day of action and will print a special edition with a pull out in the paper containing all 24 articles published in its recent Open Minds series on independence, written by Believe in Scotland.

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, founder of Believe in Scotland, said: “We need to have a referendum during this term of the Scottish Parliament and we need to start planning now to regain the momentum and raise Yes support before the referendum is called.

Lockdown means we can’t yet name a date but we can start planning - within a few weeks of lockdown ending we want to hit the streets and make up for lost time. Dozens of Yes groups have already expressed support for the idea, but we want to get more than 100 onboard and so we will seek agreement from the National Yes Network’s committee to act as our partners in making this huge push work.

The National is on board and that gives us great content to distribute as well as the campaign materials every local Yes group will receive from the Believe in Scotland fundraiser. Including all our 24 Open Minds articles in a special edition supplement that activists can hand out will help persuade a lot of people to consider moving to support for independence.

Provisional goals for the day

We want to hear ideas from activists and Yes groups with their ideas to make this initiative as effective as possible.

Suggestions ideas so far include:

1.    125 participating local Yes groups

2.    100 street stalls at open days at Yes hubs and offices

3.    25 coffee mornings

4.    100 billboards throughout Scotland

5.    100,000 leaflets door dropped (supplied by BiS)

6.    30,000 Open Minds supplements distributed via the National and street work

7.    50,000 meaningful conversations with undecided voters

8.    A coordinated social media campaign, with zoom training sessions for activists by BiS

9.    A major youth vote activation initiative

10.  100,000 views of related online content 

Business backers of Scottish independence have contributed £50,000 in matching donations to an indyref2 fundraiser run by Believe in Scotland.

Believe in Scotland is the largest and most active independence campaigning organisation and incorporates the business and economic wellbeing campaign group Business for Scotland. The organisation was awarded Independence Campaign of the Year (2020) by The National newspaper and the Scottish Independence Foundation after launching in January 2020.

The pro-independence business donors from Business for Scotland have agreed to match the first £50,000 raised from the independence supporting public - pound for pound. So if the initiative raises £25,000 it pulls down an additional £25,000 to raise £50,000 in total and if it generates £50,000 the sum raised will total £100,000 to support local Yes Groups as they get ready for indyref2.

The organisation has committed that 100% of the money raised will go on active campaigning as all organisational costs are met already through membership fees.

Listing some of its goals for the money raised, Believe in Scotland promised the fundraiser would deliver amongst other initiatives:

• A free fundraising and campaigning pack for up to 120 participating local Yes groups.
• More billboards across Scotland to counter unionist misinformation and scaremongering.
• A million leaflets delivered to Scottish households within a year of the end of lockdown.
• Social media and local adverts targeting key messages needed to raise Yes support.

The fundraising push was launched on Tuesday, May 11 2021 and will run till the end of May.

After just two days, which represents 10% of the fundraising campaign's run, it had already hit 34% of its fundraising total with 210 donors contributing £16,865.00 which will be doubled by the business backers to take the funds raised to £33,730.00 so far.

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, founder of Believe in Scotland, said:
“Last week Scotland’s people elected a Yes majority to Holyrood – Scotland’s people just demanded a second independence referendum and they will get one.

"We expect the earliest practical date for a referendum will be Autumn 2022 and the latest possible date will be Autumn 2023. We are very pleased and humbled by how many people are willing to help Believe in Scotland get ready for indyref2, to help us get ready to win this time and unlock Scotland’s potential to be a wealthier, fairer, healthier and greener nation than we can be stuck in the outdated dysfunctional United Kingdom.

Boris Johnson’s determination to ignore democracy and attempt to stop a second referendum on Scottish independence is out of step with public opinion in the UK.

A survey of more than 8,500 people by polling company Ipsos MORI has found more than half of people across the UK think Scotland should be able to hold indyef2 within five years if the SNP wins a majority in the May election.

It shows that the Prime Minister’s threat to do everything in his power to stop such a referendum is not supported by the British electorate.

Mr Johnson has argued the referendum can only take place if Westminster passes a section 30 order, as it did for the 2014 referendum.

The SNP has challenged the Prime Minister to take legal action to try to stop the referendum and is confident of winning the argument in a legal battle

There’s no legal basis for that assertion and the SNP has vowed to hold a referendum with or without a section 30 order if it is returned to government in May.

It has challenged the Prime Minister to take legal action to try to stop the referendum and is confident of winning the argument in a legal battle.

Nicola Sturgeon: wants to hold indyref2 before 2023

Nicola Sturgeon unveiled the SNP’s manifesto last week, which promised to hold a second independence referendum within the next parliamentary term, preferably before 2023, if the Covid crisis is over.

She said it was essential to hold the independence referendum in time to give the Scottish parliament the power necessary to steer Scotland through the Covid recovery.

Scotland is being led in the wrong direction by the Westminster government, she said, and a referendum was essential while there was still time to change course.

The Ipsos MORI survey found 51 per cent of people across the UK believed the SNP should be able to hold another independence referendum within the next parliament’s five-year term

Most recent opinion polls have suggested the SNP is on course to win an outright majority in the May elections. The minority which showed it failing to win a majority suggested there would still be a substantial majority of MSPs supporting independence.

The Ipsos MORI survey found 51 per cent of people across the UK believed the SNP should be able to hold another independence referendum within the next parliament’s five-year term if the party won a Holyrood majority. Just 40 per cent believed the UK government should try to block such a vote.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos MORI Scotland, said: “Should the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats, as currently looks likely if current levels of support hold, it will be much more difficult for the UK government to refuse a second referendum on independence.’

The Conservatives in Scotland are expected to place opposition to the referendum at the heart of their manifesto when it is unveiled today.

Their election manifesto message that a vote for the Tories is the only way of stopping indyref 2 makes little sense when taken together with Boris Johnson’s insistence that he can stop such a referendum in any case.

A poll last week found that 60% of Labour Party members disagreed with leader Keir Starmer's opposition to a second independence referendum.

You may also like - Exclusive: Greens and Alba flying high on List but SNP majority in danger 

Scotland will vote on Thursday, May 6 2021 to decide the next government of Scotland. Believe in Scotland is non-party political and will never tell people how to vote, however, a lot of myths surround the voting system for Holyrood so this article will explain in simple terms how Scotland elects representatives to the Scottish Parliament.

This will be no run of the mill election as both independence supporting political parties have made a clear commitment to hold a new independence referendum if there is a majority for independence in the new parliament.

An SNP single-party majority (more than 65 MSPs) would replicate the result in 2011 that brought about the 2014 referendum but no one expected that majority result (including the SNP). This time, however, everyone expects the SNP to win and to win big, the only question is by how much, or will they achieve a majority again?  The polls indicate the Scottish Greens also likely to increase representation via the list vote from six in 2016 to around ten, so an independent supporting majority is pretty much a mathematical certainty.

The likelihood of the SNP almost sweeping the board in the first past the post/constituency vote has led to some claiming that a list vote for the SNP is a wasted vote and several parties were formed to stand on the list with a goal of maximising the number of Yes supporting MSPs. Those parties, known as pop-up parties, never looked to have gained enough traction for that plan to work. However, the two major ones have now stood down in favour of the new Alba party, led by former First Minister Alex Salmond.

The only poll so far to have asked people how they will vote thats includes Alba, shows Alba at 3% which, if that were the case on May 6, would mean it would not win any list seats. However, that poll was conducted so soon after the launch of Alba it cannot be seen as definitive. It's also worth stressing that, with a new player and all the coverage that comes with its leader, looking at past results CANNOT give you a reliable indication of what is likely to happen in May. Believe in Scotland has commissioned a poll from a major polling company and we will (at the right time) publish the results in a way that will offer more reliable guidance on the state of the parties. You can be assured that we will use the accepted polling and data weighting methodologies and so our poll will be as credible and definitive as a poll can be.

This article explains how the Holyrood Additional Member System (AMS) actually works.

Ten things you should know about how we elect MSPs to Holyrood

1. The Additional Member System (AMS) is the electoral system used by the Scottish Parliament to elect MSPs. It’s is a form of proportional representation intended to give political parties a proportionate share of MSPs across Scotland, compared to the percentage of the vote they gain.
2. This system involves two votes. Voters choose a candidate from a specific party from the names listed on the ballot paper to represent their constituency and the candidate with the most votes will be elected. This element of the Scottish electoral system directly elects 73 MSPs and is based on First Past the Post (FPTP), employed in the UK parliament elections. It is, under FPTP, possible for a party to come second in every single seat in the country and get zero candidates elected, thus FPTP is considered to be a poor system for delivering a just democratic result.
3. The second vote (the regional or list vote) differs from the first and adopts the AMS. Voters don’t choose a candidate but their preferred political party, to ensure overall representation of each political party is fair and allows for the allocation of 56 ‘additional member’ MSPs. 
4. After all constituency FPTP votes are elected, seven additional MSPs are allocated to each of the eight parliamentary regions - Central Scotland, Glasgow, Highlands and Islands, Lothians, Mid Scotland and Fife, North East Scotland, South Scotland and West Scotland - to make the overall representation proportionately fair.
5. Each party has its own selection process for the list and agrees in advance which candidates will accept the first list seat allocated to their party

6. List seats are allocated by counting the second/list votes for each party in each region and dividing those votes by one plus the number of seats the party gained in the FPTP elections.

• • So if Party A won two constituency seats under FPTP and gained 100,000 list votes they have 33,333 list votes to compare to the other parties.
  • If Party A wins the first of the allocated list seats when it comes to allocating the second list seat from that region their 100,000 list votes are now divided by four (the three MSPs they now have elected in that region plus one) so they only have 25,000 votes counting in the second round. 
  • If Party B had 110,000 list votes but three FPTP MSPs they would have 27,500 list votes that count (the three FPTP MSPs elected in that region plus one) and so although they were beaten by Party A in round one in round two Party B would win the next available list seat and so on until all the seven list seats are allocated from that region.

7. For larger parties such as the SNP, the regional vote can still be crucial. In 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats via the FPTP vote. However, it was the list vote that gave the SNP a parliamentary majority, resulting in the SNP gaining a further 16 seats taking the party to a total of 69 MSPs and a majority in parliament. Therefore, the SNP has always and will always encourage voters to make both their first and second vote in favour of the SNP. The significance of the regional vote is clear and should be considered as a form of democratic insurance in the election process.
8. Political parties that fail to use AMS properly can pay a heavy price. Indeed, in the 2011 Scottish Elections, the Labour party faced drastic consequences by not standing key candidates as additional members, assuming they would all win their seats. Ultimately many leading Labour MSPs that had served since 1999 lost their seats to the SNP and, after being replaced by SNP MSPs, did not succeed in getting re-elected.
9. The regional vote is also critical for smaller parties of Scotland. The Scottish Greens for example gain a lot of votes but never enough (so far) to unseat the leading parties in any of the FTPT elections. But they can gain seats via the list vote. The D’Hondt method that is used to calculate representation in the AMS, counts 100% of their list votes as they have no FPTP MSPs meaning their list vote is only divided by one until they get an MSP elected. In the 2016 election, the Scottish Green party had six MSPs elected through the list vote, accounting for the party’s entire parliamentary representation.
10. Any party that has a chance of or wants to be seen as having a chance of forming a future Scottish Government will demand members and supporters give both votes to their party. There are no alliances and if a party stands against another party in the list vote then they are opponents. The large parties see the list as insurance against not winning a FPTP seat because of some unexpected result and they will not give up that insurance willingly. The Scottish Greens stand some high profile candidates on the FPTP ballot as they believe that will mean more people will remember to vote for them on the list. Regardless of the situation in the other electoral regions, all polling indicates that the SNP will need list seats in South Scotland and Highlands and Islands to form a single-party majority, which is their aim.

    
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Observations

The AMS is a fairer electoral system than the FPTP system used for UK general elections. It is incorrect to say list votes are wasted if they don’t elect a candidate from your party because your party has won FPTP seats. The party itself will want those list votes as insurance and doesn’t want opposition MSPs. SNP supporters who think the AMS system doesn't work for them should also remember that in the first Scottish Parliament elections the SNP won on seven FPTP seats and 28 list seats for a total of 35 SNP MSPs and that those list MSPs, their wages and staffing budgets transformed the SNP into the party that is currently dominant in Scotland. No AMS - no 2014 referendum and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon herself relied on the list vote between 1999 and 2007 to be elected.

There is, however, a mathematical argument that representation of independence supporting MSPs can be boosted in some regions by SNP voters giving their second vote to another party on the list. Indeed the Greens may well benefit significantly from SNP voters feeling the SNP doesn’t need insurance in its electoral region. Adding more list parties means the Yes vote on the list will be diluted but with a major political figure leading a third list party, it is just possible they will be able to get enough votes to get some candidates elected. Polling may suggest this is not the case but it is too early to tell yet; the BiS poll will be more definitive and that will help people to make up their minds.

Both the UK Government and the media headlines have suggested that the UK is leading the way on the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out. We recognised in a previous article, that the UK paid significantly more for vaccinations, causing delays within many EU countries as the manufacturers directed supplies towards the overpaying nation. Despite this, in terms of fully vaccinating the population, the UK is still trailing behind a large number of countries worldwide, including many of those in the EU. Let's examine the vaccination programmes in larger EU countries, with a similar population size to the UK, then compare smaller, independent countries to determine whether an independent Scotland would have been likely to have vaccinated its population more efficiently than it has as part of the UK.

Vaccination programmes in larger countries

As of the 9^th February 2021, the UK had fully vaccinated 0.77% of the population. Meanwhile, Germany had vaccinated 1.32%, Spain 1.9% and Italy 2.05% of the population. The only European country with a similar population that is marginally falling behind the UK is France, with 0.54% of its population fully vaccinated. This suggests that, despite the headlines, the UK is trailing behind most of the most comparable nations in reaching full immunity from the virus. Despite these countries all being part of the EU and its vaccination programme, that was hindered by the UK capitalising upon the vaccine, they remain significantly ahead of the UK in terms of fully vaccinating their populations.

A comparison with small independent countries

The table below demonstrates the % of the population that have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in small independent countries, as well as the UK. The results highlight that all of these small independent countries have managed to fully vaccinate a greater percentage of their populations than the UK. Even a very small country, such as Estonia, has fully vaccinated nearly double the number of individuals that the UK has. Furthermore, the figures suggest that the UK’s progress is very slow and gradual, with the percentage of the population being fully vaccinated rising very slowly.

Share of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (%)

Conclusions

Despite headlines such as “Vaccine success to give UK huge economic boost! PM: 'Jabs get us closer to beating virus'” from the Express, it is clear that the UK still has a long way to go in terms of reaching immunity and fully vaccinating the population. the only thing the UK Government has been winning at recently seems to be false propaganda about it's vaccination programme.  Its shouldn't be a race, nations should be working tother to beat this health crises but the UK Government has been misleading people about their calcination programme success and thus politicking the issue.  Despite spending significantly more on vaccinations than other countries, and consequently causing EU deliveries to be held up , the UK trails behind a number of countries both large and small. Importantly, our findings recognise that small, independent countries have been more than capable of vaccinating their populations and in fact, have fully vaccinated a greater percentage of their populations than the UK.

Scotland took a slightly different approach to vaccinating its population against COVID-19 than the rest of the UK. The Scottish Government planned for a slower start in the vaccination programme, due to prioritising the oldest and most vulnerable individuals. This has proven effective, with deaths among care home residents falling rapidly in Scotland. Furthermore, over the past couple of weeks, with the majority of all care home residents and over 80s having been vaccinated, the speed of Scotland’s vaccination roll-out has reached new heights and is now significantly more efficient than the UK’s overall. In fact, Scotland currently leads the way in Europe (alongside Wales) administering the most daily COVID-19 vaccine doses (0.89 per 100 people on 9th February - 7 day rolling average).

A comparison of the two nations

31st February – 10th February 2021

 Over the past week, Scotland has administered more doses of the vaccine each day (per 1,000 people of population) than the UK average, and in fact, England has vaccinated notably less than the other nations.

Number of 1^st dose of COVID-19 vaccine daily per 1,000 individuals (31^st Jan – 10^th Feb 2021)

Scotland’s approach proving effective

 Scotland is now not only vaccinating more people per day than the UK average, but the government’s decision to vaccinate the most vulnerable individuals first is proving to be a success. The latest figures from the National Records of Scotland highlight that 68 people residing in care homes in Scotland died with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 in the week beginning 1^st February. When compared to the week beginning 4^th January, the number of deaths has declined by 40%. This suggests that in Scotland, deaths in care homes are falling 10 times faster than amongst the general population. While it is not yet clear to what extent the vaccine has contributed to this, it is likely that the prioritisation of vaccinating the elderly and most vulnerable first, will have played a key role in these promising figures.

This graph highlights the change in Scotland's vaccination programme after a majority of care home residents and staff had been vaccinated. On the 1st of February 2021, 98% of older care home residents and 88% of care home staff had been vaccinated in Scotland, as the government had planned. Therefore, with a majority of the most vulnerable members of society having been vaccinated, the focus of vaccines could shift to the wider population and be carried out at a greater speed. This is clearly demonstrated in the graph and from this point the Scotland has vaccinated more 1st doses per 1,000 people each day than the rest of the UK.

Conclusions

Throughout January, Scotland’s approach to rolling-out the vaccine was politicised and often criticised in the headlines. However, recent figures, showing a decline in deaths among those in care homes, have suggested that this approach may have been significantly more effective. Meanwhile, the statistics on daily doses across the UK suggest that Scotland is now leading the way and exceeding all targets set out by the Scottish Government.