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The Ipsos MORI poll which yesterday showed support for Yes increase to 55% contained other good news for independence supporters.

There was, for instance, a detailed breakdown of how strong support for Yes was in a range of different age groups. Every group except the oldest – over 55 – showed a majority likely to vote for independence.

Support was strongest in the youngest age groups. Among those aged between 16 and 24 and those aged 25-34, 71% agreed that Scotland should be an independent country, while only 29% did not. Support for Yes in the 35-44 age range was at 63%, with 37% against independence.

In the 45-54 age range 58% supported independence and 42% did not. Independence support slipped to 49% in the 55-64 age range and to 34% among those aged 65 and over.

The poll also destroyed the Unionist argument that the Scottish people do not care about independence. It was ranked as the second most important issue facing Scotland after health issues and the NHS.

Independence supporting parties showed an increase in voter support in both constituency seats and in the regional lists. The SNP registered 52% support in constituencies (up 2 compared with Ipsos Mori’s last poll of 30 April – 3 May)  and 43% in the regional list vote – up 4.

The Scottish Green party registered 3% support in constituencies – up 1 compared to the last poll– and 12% in the regional list (no change)

All the Unionist parties saw their support fall. The Conservatives to 19% in constituencies (down 1) and to 20% in the regional list (down 3); Scottish Labour to 17% in the constituencies (down 5) and to 15% in the regional list (down 3);  the Scottish Liberal Democrats to 5% (down 1) in the constituencies and to 6% in the regional list (down 2). The independence-supporting Alba Party, which has only stood candidates in the regional list, saw its support slip by 1 to 1%.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is Scotland’s least favourite party leader,  with 4 in 5 Scots (80%) saying they are dissatisfied with the way he is doing his job.

Nicola Sturgeon remains the highest rated party leader, with almost three in five respondents (58%) saying they are satisfied with the job she's doing.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is Scotland’s least favourite party leader,  with 4 in 5 Scots (80%) saying they are dissatisfied with the way he is doing his job. This is the worst result ever recorded by Ipsos MORI – Johnson’s previous lowest rating was in October 2020, when 76% were dissatisfied with his performance. Almost 3 in 5 (58%) of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 general election say they are dissatisfied.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross is the least popular of the Scottish party leaders. Just over  half (51%) of Scots say are dissatisfied with his performance as Conservative leader. Only 24% are satisfied, while 25% don’t know enough to rate him.

The 55% support for Yes registered in the poll is five percentage points higher than support in the Ipsos MORI poll in early May and is the highest figure for Yes in a year.

The poll was carried out in November, during Believe in Scotland's  ongoing Autumn for Independence Action. Events have so far included a successful Day of Action and the production - in partnership with the SNP and The National newspaper - of an 8-page independence newspaper putting the case for wellbeing through independence, which was delivered to a million homes across Scotland.

The first poll on Scottish independence after the majority of Believe in Scotland’s Autumn of Indy Action campaign has been implemented shows support for Yes significantly increasing to 55%.

Excluding don’t knows, the poll - carried out by Ipsos MORI for STV during November  - suggests if indyref2 was held now the 2014 result could be reversed.

The 55% Yes support is a five per cent increase on the last Ipsos MORI poll before the Scottish elections in May and is the highest Yes support in a year.

Our Autumn of Action kicked off on September 18, partnering with 112 local Yes groups who restarted their campaigns, the National Yes Network and The National putting out more than 600,000 leaflets.

Then we teamed up with the SNP and The National again to produce an 8-page newspaper and deliver it to a million homes across Scotland, reaching almost half the voting population with a message on Scotland's wellbeing through independence. Now Scotland has responded.

It has done so after the COP 26 conference in Glasgow raised the global perception of Scotland's contribution to combatting climate change and after the Westminster government became mired in sleaze allegations. The new poll showed approval ratings for Prime Minister Boris Johnson hitting a record low in Scotland. Four out of five respondents said they were dissatisfied with his performance.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced on Monday that the SNP’s independence campaign would begin ‘in earnest’ next spring, with a view to the referendum itself being held in 2023 - Believe in Scotland and the grassroots Yes campaigns have already started.

Yes support at 55% is a good pointer - especially as our poll on independence carried out by Panelbase just before our Day of Action in September showed only 48% backing for Yes with undecideds removed - but there is a lot more work to be done. This latest poll is not yet a trend. We need to do everything we can to make sure other polls also find growth in support for Yes.

Flanders has extended the hand of friendship to an independent Scotland by focusing on the ‘enormous opportunity’ of a trading partnership.

The minister-president of Flanders, Jan Jambon, has said that ports in his region should start preparing as soon as possible for trade with an independent Scotland.

Our ports must be ready to become at that time [after Scottish independence] the main partner of the Scots

He said: "If Scotland becomes independent in a few years it will want to join the European Union as soon as possible. From then on, she will no longer want to have her exports go through England but to ship them by sea directly to the continent.

"This is a huge opportunity that Antwerp and Zeebrugge must already anticipate now. Our ports must be ready to become at that time the main partner of the Scots".

So what potential does Flanders hold for indy Scotland and how important a friend can Jan Jambon be?

Who is Jan Jambon anyway?

He is a Belgian politician of the New Flemish Alliance who has been serving as minister-president of Flanders since 2019.

He has been in Scotland with a delegation of port companies looking to boost trade entering Belgian ports, the first such mission since the United Kingdom left the European Union. Brexit hit Flanders badly in the first quarter of 2021, when exports fell by 21.19%. But an improving performance since then saw exports increase by 3.45% over the first seven months of the year compared with 2020. The improvement was largely driven by pharmaceuticals.

Scotland has fared less well. HM Revenue & Customs figures show that from the period ending June 2021, Scottish exports had decreased by 14% compared to the previous year - the highest decline in the UK.

Over the past three years, Scottish exports have also fallen from a high of around £4.8bn to £3.2bn in the second quarter of this year.

Jambon met Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon on Monday, when they discussed trade links between Scotland and Flanders as well as "future opportunities to co-operate across a range of shared interests".

In a separate tweet from his own account, Jambon also stated that they discussed plans for a second Scottish independence referendum, possibly be held in 2023.

Does Flanders already have significant links with Scotland?

Flemish ministers or parliamentary delegations regularly visit Scotland, with the aim of collaborating in key policy areas such as education, health, ports or international activities.

Flemish artists and theatre companies are regular visitors to Scottish arts festivals with the support of the government of Flanders. In recent times, many Flemish productions attend the Edinburgh Fringe Festival under the guise of 'Big in Belgium'.

The area also has extensive ties with Scottish universities. It has specifically supported a historical research project, Scotland and the Flemish People, at the University of St Andrews which looks at the influence of Flemish migrants on Scottish society throughout history.

The Scottish National Gallery hosted a Flanders Day reception in 2016 the wake of a Rubens exhibition and an academic conference to emphasise the close ties between Flanders and Scotland.

The ancient county of Flanders in northern Belgium was the economic powerhouse of Europe in the early medieval period and the principal outlet for Scotland’s major export of wool

Have we collaborated before?

Scotland has strong historic links to the Low Countries –  also called Benelux countries, a coastal region of north western Europe consisting of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg.

The ancient county of Flanders in northern Belgium was the economic powerhouse of Europe in the early medieval period and the principal outlet for Scotland’s major export of wool.

In a two-part Radio Scotland series Scotland and the Low Countries broadcaster Billy Kay celebrated Scotland’s profound engagement with the Flemish and Dutch people over the centuries.

Socialism and Capitalism are dead, they are last centuries outdated ideas. Each has failed because of growing political tribalism, left and right grew so far apart in the 80s that the political elites realised they could rule from the centre-ground. Empty slogans took over, New Labour, Caring Capitalism - they failed because populism is an empty promise. Populism couldn't deliver results because all they were selling in elections was what the people wanted to hear and not what they needed to hear. All their solutions were soundbite sticking plasters and the problems became insurmountable.

It started in the 90s and ended with the financial crash, it's just that people haven't realised it yet but our political system is broken, it's salesmen becoming more and more desperate caricatures of leaders, our economic approach is not just fit for the challenges of this century, it's creating the challenges of this century. We need to press the reset button, to build environmental sustainability into our political model, to make our economy and our society more resilient in the face of financial, health and environmental crises.

Such a task cannot be attempted with the pitiful and reducing powers of devolution. Independence gives us the opportunity to rethink Scotland, to redesign our politics and our socioeconomic approach. If we do that then we create a compelling independence vision that all generations and political allegiances can rally to. How do we begin that task? By identifying the values we share, the problems we face and solutions rooted in our values rather than in political short term-ism, a path to a greener, fairer, wealthier, healthier and happier thriving independent Scotland begins to appear.

We don't yet have all the answers this is just the first step.

"We have the chance to press reset, to choose a fresh, better and more ambitious approach to how we manage Scotland’s economy and society"

BELIEVE in Scotland studied several nations around the world that are adopting a wellbeing socioeconomic approach: Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Denmark, New Zealand and even Wales.

None has yet fully developed its thinking into a holistic approach but all had ideas worthy of adopting and adapting to Scotland’s needs. From those international examples we created a wellbeing policy framework, polled 1000 voters living in Scotland and found there was majority support – mostly more than 75 per cent – for each of the value positions of a wellbeing approach. You can download the full report on the poll here Public Attitudes Toward Wellbeing Economics in Scotland.

You might expect Labour, Green and SNP voters to agree with the values of wellbeing. However, there was majority support with Lib-Dem and Conservative voters, albeit to a lesser degree. Surprisingly, Conservative voters even came out top on one of the key values.

Are socialism and capitalism last century’s ideas?

Is a wellbeing economic approach the only way to build a resilient, fairer and more successful society and save the planet? A significant majority of Scots want to live in a country with a social/economic/environmental policy framework based on these shared values and ambitions of the Scottish people.

Equality, quality of life, fairness, happiness and health are all economic outcomes that should be given equal weight to economic growth.

The focus of the economy should be to serve the needs of the people and society more than the needs of big business and finance.

To be able to live with dignity while experiencing wellbeing and security should be a basic human right and not something that comes only with wealth.

>You cannot have a thriving economy without a thriving society and you cannot have a thriving society without a thriving economy.

Austerity has failed, slowed economic growth, harmed people and society, and made the country more susceptible to economic and health crises.

Post coronavirus, our economic policies need to be re-engineered to generate higher levels of equality in health, wealth, wellbeing and access to opportunity.

If we build society and our economy more successfully after coronavirus, we can create a new economic approach that will allow both our economy and our society to thrive and be more resilient in economic crises.

The nature of work is changing and we need to invest more heavily in innovation, encouraging better business practices and preparing for the future of work.

Education is an investment in our children and young people and should be free and open to everyone.

Small businesses are the backbone of our economy.
Greater government investment in creativity and innovation is needed to help them grow and create better quality jobs.

Government expenditure on welfare and health is higher due to the inequalities in the current economic system and a wellbeing approach would reduce those costs.

Economic success being among society would result in better growth.

Greater access to personal development opportunities for all will increase social mobility and benefit the economy.

Ending poverty, inequality and unfairness, while increasing minimum wage and job security, will boost the economy.

People need to feel more secure in their livelihoods.
A universal basic income for every adult citizen may provide that security and end in-work and pensioner poverty.

Decision-making should be less centralised to give people a greater democratic voice in local issues.

We need to reduce our economy’s carbon outputs and waste, make transport more sustainable and make recycling and repairing far more prominent.

"Is a wellbeing economic approach the only way to build a more resilient, fairer and more successful society and save the planet?"

Independence is a normal and the many benefits of independence are within Scotland’s grasp and they would work to make life better for all who live within our borders and to forge closer links with friends and allies elsewhere in the world. Scotland’s civic nationalism defines us as a people. It’s inclusive, internationally focused and welcoming.

We simply want the chance to create a nation that reflects our political, economic, environmental and social values and thus enhances our nation’s wellbeing in ways that cannot be achieved if we remain governed by an uncaring and unfit Westminster parliament.

Wellbeing offers an inspirational vision of a future Scotland and if you decide to support independence you become one of the people helping to shape the ideas which guide it.

Let’s take advantage of this incredible opportunity, the chance to shape an emerging independent nation for the benefit of generations to come. All you have to do to change our future is believe in Scotland.

THE massive job of printing one million pro-independence newspapers produced in a joint project by Believe in Scotland, The National newspaper and the SNP has finished … and now the huge task of distributing them begins.

Copies of the eight-page special newspaper will now be delivered by volunteers to a million homes across Scotland.

It’s a mind-boggling operation which brings the most active and effective non-party independence campaigning group in the country together with Scotland’s only independence-backing daily newspaper and the party which won a major victory in the last Scottish elections in May.

The newspaper is targeted specifically at those voters who have not yet made up their minds on the question of Scotland becoming an independent country but remain open to persuasion

The Scottish Greens, who recently entered into a power sharing agreement with the SNP in the Scottish government, also joined in.

The newspaper is targeted specifically at those voters who have not yet made up their minds on the question of Scotland becoming an independent country but remain open to persuasion.

It contains articles by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, Believe in Scotland’s Founder Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, Scottish Finance Secretary Kate Forbes, the Scottish Greens Co-leader Lorna Slater, SNP president Michael Russell and more.

Printing finished at 18.45 on Monday night at the National’s printing plant at Cambuslang. Stuart McLean, the print centre manager, described the scale of the task as ‘monumental’. He added: ‘It was the largest print run we have produced in 20 years of printing at the Cambuslang centre … but it ran like a Swiss watch.’

Printing started on Sunday night with two presses each printing 40,000 copies an hour. The publication was printed on recycled paper and its print run was the biggest in Scotland in recent history.

Pressroom shift manager Alan Myles said: “We’re not normally in on a Monday through the day – we’re in the rest of the week, for the weeklies. Usually a Monday is quite quiet.’

Make no mistake this publication fires the starting gun on indyref2

The National’s editor Callum Baird said: “We’re taking our hats off to the print team – they’ve done a fantastic job taking on such a huge operation and the final product looks great.'

In an article published by Believe in Scotland on Sunday Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp said: ‘Make no mistake this publication fires the starting gun on indyref2 but it also starts to redefine the purpose of independence in response to the chaos of Westminster, Brexit and Covid lockdowns.

'The paper also marks a step-change in the key message of the independence movement and starts a conversation with undecided voters about the type of nation we want to build with the full powers of independence.’

Believe in Scotland’s campaigning continues with our Digital Day of Action in early December. Every penny we raise from members of our campaign goes directly on promoting independence. All salaries and administration costs are covered by Business for Scotland.

You can support us by making a monthly donation here. If you can’t afford that you can pledge your support for free here. Every pledger will receive a FREE PDF of our best-selling book ‘Scotland the Brief’ and a code to start a FREE two- month online subscription for The National newspaper.

For the last month Believe in Scotland have been working in partnership with the SNP and The National to produce an 8-page newspaper that will be distributed to more than 1 million homes across Scotland in November

This is a co-branded initiative with the three main partners coming together to rethink and reposition independence in the minds of the undecided. This week the Scottish Greens also joined the project demonstrating a collaborative approach between the lead Yes campaigning organisations that has never been seen before. The project was championed within the SNP by their new President Michael Russell, who has also taken on the task of heading up their independence unit. Michael is sending a message and his actions clearly demonstrate that the SNP are now reaching out to collaborate with the leaders of the Yes movement and build bridges.

Make no mistake this publication fires the starting gun on indyref2 but it also starts to redefine the purpose of independence in response to the chaos of Westminster, Brexit and Covid lockdowns. The paper also marks a step-change in the key message of the independence movement and starts a conversation with undecided voters about the type of nation we want to build with the full powers of independence. The only way we protect Scotland’s economic, social and environmental wellbeing is through independence.

The 2023 referendum will not be a re-run of indyref1. Firstly, as the UK of 2014 is broken beyond repair and secondly, Scotland will vote Yes this time and our nation will be able to realise its untapped potential.

So now its time to back Believe in Scotland

• At the beginning of 2021 were named 2020 independence campaign of the year then we got bigger and better.
• Our national billboard campaigns hit hundreds of billboards across Scotland with 4 key messages on the UK having 'the worst pensions in the developed world' and just pointing out that Independence is Normal. Those were seen over 2 million times by commuters.
• Our major social media push resulted in more than 200,000 unique followers of our pages on Facebook and our messages regularly reach 250-300,000 people a month.
• Our new Facebook group reached 24,000 members in its first year
• We hit 41,000 sales of our breakthrough publication Scotland the Brief.
• On top of this our online gallery of fact-checked images and banners has been a massive success generating millions of views on social media.
• Autumn of Indy Action kicked off with our Day of Action on September 18th when 112 local Yes groups started to deliver 700,000 items of campaigning materials for our Autumn of Action.
• We distributed 60,000 copies of a 24 page newsprint publication 'Open Minds' through doors and from street stalls.
• We have now teamed up with The SNP, The Scottish Greens, The National, The National Yes Network, the Scottish Independence Foundation and almost every active local Yes group to campaign and keep the independence fire burning.
• We were just getting started though and after a major crowdfunding success in June, we announced our three-stage Autumn of Indy Action. That kicked off with our Day of Action on September 18th, moves into top gear with this 1 million paper initiative and will continue with our Digital Day of Action in early December.

So back us! No other organisation is doing a tenth of Believe in Scotland’s campaigning. Every penny we raise from members of our campaign goes directly on promoting independence. All salaries and admin costs are covered by Business for Scotland.

If you can afford to then please make a monthly donation (most people give £5.00 per month) you can do that here.

Offshore wind resources in the North Sea will create thousands of jobs and boost Scotland ‘s ambitions to be a world leader in renewable energy through a plan unveiled at COP 26 in Glasgow.

The Northern Horizons Project will use floating offshore wind turbines to produce green hydrogen which could fuel vehicles or be used in fuel cells to generate electricity during times of the day when the wind resource is low.

Norway’s Aker Offshore Wind, Aker Clean Hydrogen and DNV, consultants who are leading experts in the transition to a hydrogen-based economy, are behind the project, which they say is ‘a technically and economically feasible plan’.

It is described as a ‘response to the Scottish government’s stated ambition to develop Scotland’s potential to export significant quantities of hydrogen’.

The government is targeting 5GW of hydrogen production by 2030 and is actively looking for international collaboration in the development of a shared hydrogen economy.

This project could start production from 2030 and will ‘create thousands of jobs and the investment of billions of pounds during construction and operation’.

Sian Lloyd-Rees, managing director of Aker Offshore Wind UK, said: “This is a technically and economically feasible plan to deliver floating offshore wind at the scale needed to deliver clean energy products which can be used to help decarbonize fuel-heavy industries such as shipping and aviation."

I am proud that DNV has worked on this project that really does show a profitable business opportunity whilst contributing greatly to net zero targets

Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV, said: “To meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, the world needs to transition faster to a deeply decarbonized energy system.

"I am proud that DNV has worked on this project that really does show a profitable business opportunity creating economic growth and new job opportunities, whilst contributing greatly to the UK’s net zero targets."

The project will use floating offshore wind turbines to produce 10GW of energy to power multiple floating installations which will produce green hydrogen which will be transmitted to a net zero hydrogen refinery on Shetland.

Some observers have said COP 26 has seen more announcements that expected on agreements to reduce carbon emissions. Pete Betts, the former EU lead negotiator on climate change, told the BBC: ‘The mood of the conference is good. The trend towards a zero-carbon world is irreversible. The question is when we get there, and what the climate will be like by then."

Not everyone is as optimistic. Prominent climate change campaigner Greta Thunberg walked out of a panel discussion with former governor of the Bank of England and UN climate envoy Mark Carney shouting “this is greenwashing” .

She has denounced the COP26 summit in Glasgow for being the ‘most excluding COP ever’ and called the international conference a ‘greenwash festival’.

Ms Thunberg will join a climate protest march in Glasgow today when thousands of young people are expected to join the event, organised by Fridays for Future Scotland.

Many pupils are expected to strike from school to take part and Ms Thunberg has also urged Glasgow cleansing department workers on strike over pay to join the march.

The march will end at George Square in the city where Ms Thunberg is expected to speak, along with Ugandan activist Vanessa Nakate and other youth activists from around the world.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has added his name to those within the party who believe it should rethink its opposition to a second referendum on Scottish independence.

Labour’s current leader Keir Starmer and Scottish leader Anas Sarwar are both opposed to indyref2, continuing the anti-independence stance the party took as a partner in Better Together at the first referendum in 2014.

But Jeremy Corbyn said earlier this week that he believes indyref 2 is imminent and added: ‘I don’t believe it’s a good idea to prevent people expressing a point of view and an opinion’.

During his time as party leader Mr Corbyn shifted his position on a second independence referendum, although his party has never lifted its opposition to it. During the 2019 election campaign, he said a referendum would not happen in the early part of the parliamentary term under a Labour government. He had previously said it would not happen for the entirety of the first term of a Corby-led UK government.

Last week he said he expects a second referendum ‘in a few years’ as the pressure is there for it. He said: "I'm strongly in support of people having their voice, therefore an independence referendum is something that I believe will happen probably within a few years."

A spokesman for Scottish Labour said after his comments: "Mr Corbyn is not a sitting Labour MP and private citizens are entitled to their views on a range of issues." Labour removed the whip from Mr Corbyn after he stood down as leader because of his response to a report on anti-semitism within the party.

In my opinion they [Labour] should support a second referendum on independence; what they actually do when that referendum comes can still be debated

Mr Corbyn’s support for a second independence referendum comes after similar comments from former union boss Len McCluskey, who recently told Labour to back indyref2. As general secretary of the Unite union Mr McClusky was a major figure within the party for more than a decade.

He said: ‘In my opinion they [Labour] should support a second referendum on independence; what they actually do when that referendum comes can still be debated."

Former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish has supported a second independence referendum for some time. Last month he said he would ‘seriously consider’ voting yes in indyref2.

The Labour party in Wales adopts a different attitude to the debate around independence. Labour First Minister in Wales Mark Drakeford recently launched the Welsh government’s Constitutional Commission and said it would be ‘absurd’ to rule out considering independence as an option.

Mr Drakeford has said he does not personally support independence but, unlike his colleagues in Scottish Labour, he supports the principle of democracy. The new commission will examine how the constitutional structures of the UK can be reformed and will be led by the former archbishop of Canterbury Dr Rowan Williams and Professor Laura McAllister.

Pro-union politicians at Westminster are united in the belief that the UK government has the power to block a referendum, which it does not

Labour leader Keir Starmer prefers to wait for a promised report on Scotland from former Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown which is expected to recommend extending devolution. It’s inconceivable it will consider independence as an option.

It’s equally inconceivable that the current Westminster government would give Mr Brown’s plans any consideration given that it is busy taking away powers from Holyrood and undermining the whole principle of devolution.

Of course pro-union politicians at Westminster are united in the belief that the UK government has the power to block a referendum, which it does not. The Scottish government is committed to holding indyref2 before the end of 2023 whether Westminster backs it or not.

Believe in Scotland surveyed 3,226 Yes supporters to take the temperature of the movement on a few key issues and we published the overall results last week. Roughly 6% of the respondents who would now vote Yes said that they voted No in 2014.

We asked them; If you voted 'No' in 2014 but would now vote Yes to Scottish independence, what were the deciding factors that inspired you to change your mind?

There were many answers offered, indeed one response ran to 1,600 words, and all those useful and insightful answers will help improve our messaging. Most respondents offered multiple motivating factors and so we have calculated how often each issue was mentioned as a key driver of the No to Yes switch.

This is what changed their minds:

• 60% Said that a key motivation to switch to Yes was Brexit, they feel lied to, some felt stupid for believing the UK would stay in the EU. Thus the prospectus for independence must include an independent Scotland rejoining the EU or the Yes side wont win. When asked if joining EFTA to access the European single market would motivate them to vote Yes 40% of No to Yes switchers said no.
• 40% Said that the incompetence and uncaring nature of the UK Government and the relentless move towards right wing politics and austerity was a key motivating factor. Much of this criticism centred around Brexit and mismanagement of the health crises.
• 26% Said they felt lied to, that the promises made by politicians, from staying in the EU, pensions being safer in the UK, the vow and more powers not being delivered.
• 19% Stated that they had become more educated and now had more belief in Scotland and its economy and therefore its ability to thrive as an independent nation. About half of this cohort stated that they had read Scotland the Brief and about half stated they had read up on The McCrone report as part of their learning process.
• 17% Said a key reason to switch to Yes was an increasing belief that the NHS was not safe as part of the Union. About half of these responses used the more positive language that the NHS was safer in Scotland’s hands.
• 6% Said they had become sick of the media always talking Scotland down, with some saying that either it has worsened since 2014 or they had been blind to it.
• About 5% mentioned Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership in general and emphasised her leadership during the health crises.

The results were conclusive and were almost universally ‘away from’ motivations. That is to say that people have switched to Yes largely as they feel let down, disappointed in, or lied to by the UK and its government. As opposed to a “Towards Motivation” which would include answers such as 'I think we can build a fairer, greener more successful nation through independence'. We can also see that trend in the 40% stating a negative opinion of the UK Government, most naming Boris Johnson himself but only 5% mentioning the positive leadership of Nicola Sturgeon. Feelings about the UK Government not performing must by their nature be comparative but the dominance of the ‘away from’ motivation is clear.

This is actually very good news for the Yes movement in strategic terms. In indyref1 the Yes side had very little negativity to play with, the UK didn't seem broken to most people, David Cameron wasn’t seen as untrustworthy or completely incompetent and certainly not as a “clown” a word used by some of the switchers to describe the current PM.

So, the UK seemed to still be OK for those that couldn't see either where the UK was headed or were frightened of or resistant to change. Now after Brexit and the health crises the ballance of risk has switched to staying part of the UK.

As a result, but also partly as the Yes campaign started at around 27% in the pollsin 2001, the Yes campaign was relentlessly positive. The problem was that the White Paper was dry, boring, and uninspiring - there was no truly positive vision for people to buy into. It offered a slightly left of centre version of what we had as part of the UK. It was aimed as much at destroying the Labour vote in Scotland if Yes lost, as it was winning the referendum. A clever secondary goal but starting at around 50% Yes means indyref2 is all about winning and to do that we need to keep the approximate current 5% increase in the Yes vote (polling had it as high as a 13% in Jan 2021) and add another 5-10% by promoting an inclusive, fairer, safer more resilient, greener, happier, and successful Scotland as the key message in indyref2. In other words, we need to make the wellbeing of our nation the shared goal of our newly independent nation. Nothing less than an inspiring vision of how to improve Scotland's wellbeing as a nation will do the job.

Between 40-45% of the Scottish population are estimated naturally resistant to change due to their personality type (for example Myers Briggs ISTJ, ISFJ, ESFJ, ESTJ personality types). Fortunately, the Corporate Change Industry has detailed how to manage change with these personality types and that offers clear direction for indyref2.

• The Yes side must offer clarity and explain our vision for independence in logical terms.
• Communicate in an open and honest and inclusive way
• Be clear and discuss the objectives, goals, and vision of where the change will lead.
• Offer a clear timeline and plan of action to manage the change
• Don’t overreach or over-promise. The Scottish population is ready for change now in a way that it wasn't in 2014 they will step forward into the light but not take a leap in the dark.
• Explain the values (that they share) that underpin our vision for Scotland and our plan to build a better nation.
• Let them know how it will affect them, their local communities, and the local economy.
• Involve them in the process and ask their opinions and for their advice - We need to make indyref2 a conversation about a better future, not a political slagging match.
• Use facts to back up the reason for making the change to independence and this requires a fully costed new economic vision for Scotland based on a wellbeing economic approach, not the now outdated 'don't scare the horses' approach of the Sustainable Growth Commission.

There is at least a year’s work to be done to get the new improved case for independence ready. One that combines the ‘away from’ and ‘towards’ motivations that will bring 60% Yes into view. Given that we need to offer those resistant to change enough time to process the change and absorb its benefits, we don’t see indyref2 happening before May 2023. Before anyone wonders, if the SNP Government could have started this work earlier, remember that the opportunity that is presenting itself is a response to Brexit and the Health Crises. The issues of Brexit are taking longer to manifest than anyone imagined and with winter approaching the economic impact of the health crises may not yet be fully behind us. We progress at the speed of the undecided, the soft Yes and No voters who are resistant to change. However, it will become clearer in November that major progress is being made on creating that inspiring vision.