Pages tagged with "Polling News"

Believe in Scotland surveyed 3,226 Yes supporters to take the temperature of the movement on a few key issues and we published the overall results last week. Roughly 6% of the respondents who would now vote Yes said that they voted No in 2014.

We asked them; If you voted 'No' in 2014 but would now vote Yes to Scottish independence, what were the deciding factors that inspired you to change your mind?

There were many answers offered, indeed one response ran to 1,600 words, and all those useful and insightful answers will help improve our messaging. Most respondents offered multiple motivating factors and so we have calculated how often each issue was mentioned as a key driver of the No to Yes switch.

This is what changed their minds:

• 60% Said that a key motivation to switch to Yes was Brexit, they feel lied to, some felt stupid for believing the UK would stay in the EU. Thus the prospectus for independence must include an independent Scotland rejoining the EU or the Yes side wont win. When asked if joining EFTA to access the European single market would motivate them to vote Yes 40% of No to Yes switchers said no.
• 40% Said that the incompetence and uncaring nature of the UK Government and the relentless move towards right wing politics and austerity was a key motivating factor. Much of this criticism centred around Brexit and mismanagement of the health crises.
• 26% Said they felt lied to, that the promises made by politicians, from staying in the EU, pensions being safer in the UK, the vow and more powers not being delivered.
• 19% Stated that they had become more educated and now had more belief in Scotland and its economy and therefore its ability to thrive as an independent nation. About half of this cohort stated that they had read Scotland the Brief and about half stated they had read up on The McCrone report as part of their learning process.
• 17% Said a key reason to switch to Yes was an increasing belief that the NHS was not safe as part of the Union. About half of these responses used the more positive language that the NHS was safer in Scotland’s hands.
• 6% Said they had become sick of the media always talking Scotland down, with some saying that either it has worsened since 2014 or they had been blind to it.
• About 5% mentioned Nicola Sturgeon’s leadership in general and emphasised her leadership during the health crises.

The results were conclusive and were almost universally ‘away from’ motivations. That is to say that people have switched to Yes largely as they feel let down, disappointed in, or lied to by the UK and its government. As opposed to a “Towards Motivation” which would include answers such as 'I think we can build a fairer, greener more successful nation through independence'. We can also see that trend in the 40% stating a negative opinion of the UK Government, most naming Boris Johnson himself but only 5% mentioning the positive leadership of Nicola Sturgeon. Feelings about the UK Government not performing must by their nature be comparative but the dominance of the ‘away from’ motivation is clear.

This is actually very good news for the Yes movement in strategic terms. In indyref1 the Yes side had very little negativity to play with, the UK didn't seem broken to most people, David Cameron wasn’t seen as untrustworthy or completely incompetent and certainly not as a “clown” a word used by some of the switchers to describe the current PM.

So, the UK seemed to still be OK for those that couldn't see either where the UK was headed or were frightened of or resistant to change. Now after Brexit and the health crises the ballance of risk has switched to staying part of the UK.

As a result, but also partly as the Yes campaign started at around 27% in the pollsin 2001, the Yes campaign was relentlessly positive. The problem was that the White Paper was dry, boring, and uninspiring - there was no truly positive vision for people to buy into. It offered a slightly left of centre version of what we had as part of the UK. It was aimed as much at destroying the Labour vote in Scotland if Yes lost, as it was winning the referendum. A clever secondary goal but starting at around 50% Yes means indyref2 is all about winning and to do that we need to keep the approximate current 5% increase in the Yes vote (polling had it as high as a 13% in Jan 2021) and add another 5-10% by promoting an inclusive, fairer, safer more resilient, greener, happier, and successful Scotland as the key message in indyref2. In other words, we need to make the wellbeing of our nation the shared goal of our newly independent nation. Nothing less than an inspiring vision of how to improve Scotland's wellbeing as a nation will do the job.

Between 40-45% of the Scottish population are estimated naturally resistant to change due to their personality type (for example Myers Briggs ISTJ, ISFJ, ESFJ, ESTJ personality types). Fortunately, the Corporate Change Industry has detailed how to manage change with these personality types and that offers clear direction for indyref2.

• The Yes side must offer clarity and explain our vision for independence in logical terms.
• Communicate in an open and honest and inclusive way
• Be clear and discuss the objectives, goals, and vision of where the change will lead.
• Offer a clear timeline and plan of action to manage the change
• Don’t overreach or over-promise. The Scottish population is ready for change now in a way that it wasn't in 2014 they will step forward into the light but not take a leap in the dark.
• Explain the values (that they share) that underpin our vision for Scotland and our plan to build a better nation.
• Let them know how it will affect them, their local communities, and the local economy.
• Involve them in the process and ask their opinions and for their advice - We need to make indyref2 a conversation about a better future, not a political slagging match.
• Use facts to back up the reason for making the change to independence and this requires a fully costed new economic vision for Scotland based on a wellbeing economic approach, not the now outdated 'don't scare the horses' approach of the Sustainable Growth Commission.

There is at least a year’s work to be done to get the new improved case for independence ready. One that combines the ‘away from’ and ‘towards’ motivations that will bring 60% Yes into view. Given that we need to offer those resistant to change enough time to process the change and absorb its benefits, we don’t see indyref2 happening before May 2023. Before anyone wonders, if the SNP Government could have started this work earlier, remember that the opportunity that is presenting itself is a response to Brexit and the Health Crises. The issues of Brexit are taking longer to manifest than anyone imagined and with winter approaching the economic impact of the health crises may not yet be fully behind us. We progress at the speed of the undecided, the soft Yes and No voters who are resistant to change. However, it will become clearer in November that major progress is being made on creating that inspiring vision.

Believe in Scotland surveyed 3,226 Yes supporters in order to take the temperature of the movement on a few key issues and this is what they told us.

In a nutshell the 3,226 independence supporters who responded believe that:

• There will be a referendum before the end of 2023
• Spring 2023 is the most popular date for indyref2
• The SNP/Green alliance in Holyrood makes independence more likely
• Scotland will vote Yes to independence in 2023

We also collected comments from arround 200 No to Yes switchers telling us why they now support independence, and we have published our analysis of those here.

1) Does the SNP/Green deal help the independence cause?

We made the statement “The SNP and the Scottish Green Party have now formed a majority Government at Holyrood and both parties had the promise of a new referendum on Scottish independence in their manifestos”.

Then we asked: Do you think this makes Scottish independence more likely?

Excluding the 10% that didn't know a massive 91% said that it would make independence more likely.

Comment: The deal to form a majority Government that involves ministerial positions for the co-leaders of the Scottish Green Party has been hugely popular. In terms of political tactics, it is clearly designed partly to be a slap in the face for the Alba party. However, it also reaches out to a lot of undecided voters and even the Yes movement to demonstrate that the SNP is willing to seek partnerships. One of the reasons the deal has shown in other polling to be so popular amongst SNP supporters is that the Greens, Lorna Slater in particular, have been vocal and very enthusiastic about holding and winning a new independence referendum by the end of 2023.

2) How long should the campaign be?

We asked: What is the ideal length of a campaign to deliver a winning campaign for independence?

• 48% thought that a campaign of between 6-12 months would be best.
• 28% preferred a shorter campaign of around 6 months
• 19% thought a longer campaign of 12-18 months would be best
• 5% wanted 18-24 months.

Comment: Believe in Scotland polling from earlier this year conducted by Panelbase and even the SNP’s own polling suggests that calling a referendum before the undecided and soft No voters feel that the economy is heading back to ‘normal’ after the lock-down issues would be damaging to the Yes vote. That being the case, autumn 2022 looks unlikely and so we are probably looking at May 2023 at the earliest. As I write this May 23 is 19 months away and a 12-month campaign announced in May 2022 would be a good bet unless we have more lock downs. We don't need to worry about the UK Government calling an early referendum to take advantage of that fact as whoever calls the referendum early will be punished by the voters at the polling booth.

We also must look at the political tactical situation. The SNP have a vested interest in keeping the door shut to the Alba Party who must do well in the 2022 Council Elections to even survive. If the SNP use the promised spring statement by The FM to name a date or even narrow it down to spring or autumn 2023 then that would motivate the SNP vote.

3) When will indyref2 be?

We asked: When do you think the next referendum will be?

• 31% Thought spring 2023
• 27% Plumped for autumn 2022
• 24% Said autumn 2023
• 10% Went for spring 2022
• 5% Though it would be after 2024
• 3% Thought there would not be a referendum

Comment: A lot would have to change for it to be autumn 22, but it remains on the table if the consequences of Brexit reach a tipping point, significantly damaging support for the Union, but it looks unlikely. As well as the reasons above spring 22 is off the table, tactically because early 22 will be the Platinum Jubilee and legally the referendum can be held at the same time as the council elections. So, the 31% going for spring 23 are most likely right.

4) Who will win 

We asked: Assuming there is a referendum before the end of 2023 (as confirmed by the Scottish Government) how do you think Scotland will vote?

Excluding the 15% who didn’t know 91% believe that Yes will win if the SNP honour their commitment to holding a referendum before the end of 2023 and just 9% think Yes would lose.

Comment: Around 3% of respondents were No to Yes switchers and they were far more likely to either believe that NO would win again or to be unsure. That is worth considering as given their own experiences, which mean they have a better understanding of the reasons why people voted No last time and what it will take to change them, they may just have a more realistic outlook than the most committed Yesers.

Overall

It’s also fun to look at the answers of the trolls that completed the survey (those responses were removed from the data above). They hate the SNP/Green deal, none mentioned Brexit, they think there won’t be a second referendum or if there is that will be after 2024 so their campaign will start from a place of severe disappointment. Half of the trolls wanted an 18-24-month campaign (kicking the can down the road) and half a 6 month or less campaign and an early referendum. So clearly, they were trying to offer the answers least helpful to the Yes cause in their opinion. However, 40% of them think Yes will win indyref2.

Conclusions

Despite a fair amount of frustration, political infighting and some people feeling depressed by how long it is taking to hold the referendum - the Yes movement is fairly upbeat, believes there will be a referendum and that we will win.

Believe in Scotland thinks that spring 2023 with a 6 to 12-month campaign looks most likely and Autumn 22 and 23 are plan C and B respectively. So, the Yes movement is realistic about that situation.

Almost 90% of those who responded to a recent Believe in Scotland survey have noticed more empty shelves in shops and supermarkets.

A total of 89.3% had noticed shortages, compared to 6% who had noticed no difference and 4.7% who were unsure.

When asked about the shortage of lorry drivers, 93.3% thought that Brexit was most to blame for the situation. Just 4.4% blamed the pandemic, 0.1% blamed the weather and 2.3% thought there was some other factor.

Just under 72% had experienced recent food quality issues such as mouldy or expired food or packages with a short shelf life, while 19.7% had not and 8.6% weren’t sure.

Even more common were issues around availability. A total of 85.9% had found it difficult to find products which were normally easily available, as opposed to 9.4% who had experienced no problems and 4.7% who weren’t sure.

When asked which government they trusted most to resolve the situation, 97.2% voted for the Scottish government and 2.8 % voted for Westminster.

The survey also asked respondents if they thought Brexit had been good or bad for the Scottish economy. There was an overwhelming vote – 98.5% - for bad, with just 1.5% giving the thumbs up to the economic effects of leaving the EU.

Survey comments

I got a supermarket delivery yesterday. Almost half didn't arrive that I ordered

Joe: The length of sell by/use by has decreased significantly since Brexit. Nothing to do with Covid. We were warned this was going to happen and it has.

Rhona: I got a supermarket delivery yesterday. Almost half didn't arrive that I ordered. Delivery driver said it was an issue with European lorries and their drivers not being able to drive in this country on their driving licences.

Flora: Tesco online hasn't got half the choice it used to have. Prices gone up and less special offers. Bought strawberries in Home Bargains yesterday and only six were edible. The rest were a mouldy mush!

Sheena: Tesco last week we had poorer than usual choice of fresh veg and the carrots we did buy were tasteless and deteriorated quickly. Co-op on Monday has signs apologising for some items not being available. I think it is a combination, Brexit causing the loss of so many continental lorry drivers, and fruit and veg pickers, meant the system was strained anyway and the growing number of people self-isolating just put the lid on it.

A sixty percentage Yes vote is achievable - with the right economic approach.

However, coronavirus changed everything; every rule of conservative economics has been shattered and the world is waking up to the need to truly build back better, to intertwine resilience, health, wellbeing and environmental sustainability into our socio-political approach.

The old mantras of the left and right only address half of the wellbeing equation each and as such, they are defunct, they represent the outdated political/tribal dividing lines of the last century.

Understanding that we can't consume our way back to recovery, that the world economy has collapsed twice in just over a decade and, with climate change the single largest threat to prosperity and wellbeing starting to have a greater impact by the day, we desperately need to rethink economics.

Fortunately that’s what the people of Scotland want. They don’t want to go back to pre-covid normal, because normal wasn't working. It was unjust, environmentally unsustainable, amplified inequality that impoverished communities and disadvantaged the small businesses that are the true backbone of our economy and the health crises has given people an opportunity to adjust their values.

Not only that, our poll - Panelbase for Believe in Scotland April 2021 - found that if you offer independence in parallel with a wellbeing approach to economics then 59% of the Scottish population would vote for Scottish independence. The same poll asked the standard Yes/No question without the wellbeing caveat and found 51% Yes 49% No, so it's plain to see that a wellbeing approach would, if properly communicated would add 8% to Yes but offers the opportunity grow independence support above 60%.

A poll by Progress Scotland in 2020 found that 75% of Scottish voters would consider voting for independence if it was offered in conjunction with the right economic approach - wellbeing economics is that approach.

A poll carried out by Panelbase for the think tank Scotianomics last year (full report here) found that supporters of every single political party in Scotland overwhelmingly supported a wellbeing approach to economics. Not only did it find SNP and Labour voters wholeheartedly supporting the key elements of a wellbeing approach (which might have been expected), Conservative voters came out top on some of the key wellbeing value measures.

Crucially it also explains why so many people would switch to independence; the popularity of a wellbeing economic approach is truly cross-party and also appeals most to older voters who are the most likely to vote against independence. It's not a tactical approach though, the reason it appeals to so many is that it is the right thing to do. We must cast off conservative (austerity) thinking and understand that left and right are outdated concepts, that society and the economy are two sides of the same coin - we cannot have a thriving society without a thriving economy and we cannot have a thriving economy without a thriving society. Traditional economic thinking sets left and right ideas, the two halves of the solution, against one another and that creates a boom and bust cycle for both society and the economy that we must break.

Want to know more about the Wellbeing approach?  Within days we will publish our outline Manifesto for Wellbeing and you can see it fort on our 22,000 strong Facebook Group.

Now here is the data bit!

Overall, there is a super majority level of acceptance of the need to move to a wellbeing approach. Lets look at one of the 17 value statements polled in October 2020 as an example:

Although it has wide ranging popularity across all age groups wellbeing economics appeals most to the older generations (often our most vulnerable) and those are the ones who need a safety net to allow them to vote with their hearts and switch to supporting Scottish independence.

There is significant majority support for a wellbeing approach across supporters of all parties and that includes Conservative voters, who are the least likely political demographic to support independence. 67% of Conservative voters agreeing with this key wellbeing statement (one of 17 wellbeing value statements in the survey) is a supermajority with 21% undecided and only 12% of Conservative voters disagreeing.

Conclusion 

The Scottish Government cannot enter into a new campaign without a new economic approach, one that is based both on the values of the nation and the post-covid economic reality.

Independence is within reach - we simply need to do the right thing by the people of Scotland and offer them a socioeconomic vision that they can be inspired by, one that will lead to greater prosperity, equality and environmental sustainability.

There is a great deal of interest in tactical voting strategies for this Holyrood election amongst independence supporters. There is also a great deal of misinformation being spread about the likely outcome. 

Believe in Scotland is 100% political party neutral and does not support any specific party outcome. Our goal in compiling the poll of polls is to give people the information they need in order to make up their own minds about how to vote.  

However, there is a huge unforeseen problem which is that the polls are not consistent with regards to the new Alba Party which is standing the list. In particular there has been a huge gulf in the voting intentions for the Alba Party between one pollster, namely Panelbase, and all the others.

We have looked at Panelbase’s polling methodologies and any idiosyncrasies that might lead to their data showing double the support shown by the other pollsters. We don’t know what has been causing it and neither does the company. 

However, when one out of seven companies is out of step, on the balance of probabilities we have to say there is a greater chance that Panelbase is overstating Alba support and the others are more likely getting it right.

We cannot be 100% certain and we will not know until we see the final counts, but we would suggest there is approximately a 75% chance that Panelbase has picked up some bubble /house effect and that Alba is not (so far) in reality polling high enough to win any seats.

However, in the fourth and last poll of the month published by Panelbase Alba are at 4%, which brings Panelbase into line with the other pollsters in predicting no seats for Alba.  

We know the SNP is going to win the election, we just can't be certain by how much.

So there are really very few questions of any interest that polling can help us with. These are:

1) How much will the SNP win by and will they have a single party majority?

2) Will Alba win any seats? 

3) And at a stretch will Labour regain second place from the Conservatives?

The answers from the data are Yes but just, no and no.

In order to be able to paint the most accurate picture we have taken all 13 polls published in April by 7 major polling companies and used an average of those polls to create a likely projection in terms of Holyrood seats and regional results.

The Poll of Polls 

During the month of April, there were 13 Holyrood voting intention polls carried out in Scotland by British Polling Council members. Four by Panelbase, three from Savanta Comres, two by Survation and one each by YouGov, Optimum, BMG and Ipsos MORI. For full disclosure, one of the Panelbase polls was commissioned by Believe in Scotland.

Taking the average constituency and list votes of all the parties from those 13 April polls and creating projections suggests this is what the next Scottish Parliament will look like:

The SNP will win by a significant margin with a SNP majority of 1, gaining 65 seats - a massive 39 seats more than the Conservatives on 26, who will come second. The Conservatives will lose five seats but Labour will stay in third place on 24. 

The Greens will move from six to nine seats gaining three on the list and distancing themselves from the LibDems in fifth place who would maintain their current five MSPs.

So according to this poll of polls, the SNP will form a single party majority Government by just one seat so that majority is on a knife edge and could go either way. The Conservatives will hang on to second place by the skin of their teeth and the Greens will be the big gainers. Alba will take no seats, assuming the average/other polling companies are correct and Panelbase’s earlier polling is wrong.

There will be 74 independence supporting MSPs and only 54 Unionist supporting MSPs and this means that when the vote to hold a second independence referendum is put before the parliament it will pass easily. 

An SNP majority is not needed to call a second referendum only a Yes majority in the Scottish Parliament.

What does this mean for independence supporters who want to vote tactically?

Our view is that you should give your vote to the party that best matches your political beliefs and we do not support tactical voting. The AIMs system is fairer than the first past the post system used for Westminster elections and without it an independence majority would never have been elected in 2011. 

However, many people want to know what the best tactical voting options are for Yes supporters.

Going just by the numbers, if you wish to vote tactically and your goal is to help create the best conditions to generate a second independence referendum, then your first/constituency vote choice is very simple - you should vote SNP. 

However, it gets complicated when you have to decide to whom to tactically give your list/regional vote.

List / Regional vote options

SNP: Well, if you support the SNP both votes mantra and believe that it gives the SNP the most bargaining power with the UK government, then that is how you should vote.

They will win the list vote but not by as much as they will win the popular vote across the country. There are two regions - namely South Scotland and Highlands and Islands - where the SNP is likely to need list seats to win a single party majority. If you value an SNP majority then you should vote SNP both votes in those regions.

Greens: If you want a stronger voice in favour of action on climate change in the parliament as well as MSPs that will vote for independence then the Green Party is a good option for your tactical list vote. The Greens are not an SNP second vote party; they take list votes from unionist parties as well. They are effectively guaranteed to win seats and the poll of polls indicates they will get up to nine MSPs, so their net contribution to the Yes majority in the parliament will be positive. But they may cost the SNP seats if the SNP lose any marginal constituency seats or fail to take the ones that they are targeting.

Alba: If you agree with Alba's policies and want to send a message to the SNP on those issues then Alba is a good vote on the list for you to make a statement. However, you must be aware that across the nation it is unlikely that your vote for Alba will return an MSP unless there are significant developments which result in a doubling of the Alba vote in the last few days of campaigning. You may also want to gamble on the low probability that Panelbase had it right in its earlier polls and all the other polling organisations (including Panelbase last poll) are wrong, but even then that would probably result in a maximum of two or three MSPs because Alba's support will be stronger in Glasgow and the North East than in South Scotland and Highlands and Islands. If Alba were to get three or even four MSPs, in all likelihood at least two of those will have come from the SNP so the idea of an Alba-created supermajority is now almost impossible to realise.

Conclusion

If you want to maximise the Yes vote the only way to do that - and have the highest probability of increasing the Yes majority by more than few seats - is to vote Green on the list (but not in South Scotland or Highlands and Islands), which is more likely to generate the highest number of Yes voting MSPs based on this data from 13 polls and the resulting seat projections.

So why has Alba failed to make the breakthrough? Alex Salmond, in the biggest gamble of his political career, attacked Nicola Sturgeon and her government in the Holyrood inquiry and then launched Alba, effectively asking disillusioned SNP voters to give Alba their second vote. If he succeeds (which now looks unlikely) that will be seen as a political masterstroke, shaking the SNP tree and gathering up the falling fruit. If he fails it will be because he poisoned the well from which his party then attempted to drink.  My own personal gut feeling (although not backed up by the numbers) is that Alba’s vote will be 4% or below across the country but in some regions (Glasgow and Northeast) it will get high enough to return one or maybe two MSPs in total.

Promoters of tactical voting are always the most committed to a cause and so will happily offer their list vote for tactical reasons and cannot understand why others are not willing to do the same. Those vast movements of votes on paper, that would generate the perfect tactical result, seem realistic to them when it has little to no chance of success in reality. A significant majority of SNP voters are just not interested in voting for anything else other than SNP one and two.

This coming Scottish election will be the most important in the history of the Scottish Parliament. We already know that the SNP will win, it’s just a case of figuring out by how much. We also know that there will be a Yes majority in that Parliament and that the SNP and Scottish Greens will combine to vote through a new independence referendum. The new pro-independence party Alba, which hopes to join them in the Parliament, will also add its votes to that referendum bill.

No one expected an SNP majority in 2011 and there was only one fully committed Yes party back then, so the SNP majority was crucial to gaining a referendum.  With Alba introducing a third party in the mix for list votes it may boost the overall Yes majority but make a repeat SNP majority harder to achieve - and that is what our poll has discovered.

As the largest and most active independence campaigning organisation, Believe in Scotland members wanted a poll on Holyrood voting intentions that they can trust.  We are non-party political and, although pro-Yes, we are a neutral observer when it comes to elections. We, therefore, commissioned Panelbase, a major polling company that is a member of the British polling council; it is also a company we have regularly commissioned to carry out polls for us.

The independence question

Our poll found headline support for Scottish independence at 51% and support for the Union at 49%, which represents no change from Panelbase’s last poll. You can read more about that finding on our website here. The survey of 1,002 Scottish residents over the age of 16 between 9th to 12th April (including undecided voters) found support for independence leading by 48% to 46%, with 6% defining themselves as Don’t Knows.

Headline Holyrood voting intentions - (+/-) numbers refer to the change to last month’s Panelbase poll for direct comparison.

Holyrood constituency vote - SNP 47% (-2%), Con 23% (+1%), Lab 20% (NC), Lib Dem 6% (NC), Green 4% (+2%)

Holyrood regional vote - SNP 36% (-3%), Con 22% (+1%), Lab 17% (NC), Green 9% (+1%), Lib Dem 6% (+1%), Alba 6% (NC), All for Unity 2% (-2%)

With the SNP down -2 in the constituency battle and -3 in the list, it's plain to see that SNP support is looking less resilient than previously and that carbon copy of the 2011 SNP majority is slipping from its grasp. Technically those losses are within the margin of error of a poll this size, but they confirm a trend in other polls.

That SNP supporters may be a tad disappointed in the fact their party looks set to win by a 24% margin demonstrates just how dominant a force in Scottish politics it has become. The battle for second place between the Conservatives and Labour is close and may heat up in the next few weeks; that will surely mean less unionist tactical voting on the list and may help the SNP.

On the list vote the good news is for Alba and the Scottish Greens; our poll puts Alba on 6% - the second poll to do so - but also Panelbase is the only polling company to place Alba on 5% or more on the list the level that will get them seats and this poll's 6% represents no change from last months’ Panelbase poll.

What we can say is that if Panelbase is right, Alba will get five seats and Alex Salmond will return to Holyrood, if other posters are right then they may only get one or two or possibly none. From our poll Alba add 5 Yes MSPs from the list but if those votes were able to be transferred the SNP the SNP would get 3 more seats and have a majority.  It will therefore be argued that Alba are costing the SNP their majority - Alba will say they have saved those votes for the Yes side as they were leaving the SNP anyway.

The Scottish Green Party is on 9% on the list and may yet climb higher after the performances of its co-leaders in the TV leaders’ debates. The Greens are standing some constituency candidates, largely to ensure they get invited to TV debates; in theory having a constituency candidate reminds more people to give you their list vote and it could be argued that neither the Greens nor Alba want an SNP single-party majority, as this would reduce their influence in the next parliament.

We also included All for Unity in our graphs as some polls have suggested it might get a seat via the list, but the ultra-unionist party led by George Galloway seems to be out of the game for now on 2% and won't return any MSPs.

The seat projections

To demonstrate the absolute integrity of our Holyrood seat projections we have engaged the nation’s leading pollster, Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University, to calculate how this poll translates into seats and this is his seat projection for Holyrood:

On these figures, the SNP will fall two short of a majority with 63 seats, which represents no change from the previous Scottish election. The SNP would take three constituency seats from Labour, namely Dumbarton, East Lothian and Edinburgh Southern making Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie a high profile casualty but as she sits top of the Labour West of Scotland list she will still take a list seat.

So the Yes side sits at SNP 63 (NC), Greens 10 (+4), Alba 5 (+5) and the No side sits at Conservative 26 (-5), Labour 20 (-4), Lib Dems 5 (NC). This means that the pro-independence majority at Holyrood is predicted to be 27 seats.

We asked Sir John Curtice for his thoughts and he told us:

"The poll underlines the potential tactical choice that faces nationalist voters. On the one hand, it provides some support to Alba’s claim that a list vote for them could result in the election of more pro-independence MSPs.

On the other hand, the poll also affirms that backing Alba on the list vote could cost the SNP seats – and, in turn, the prospect of an overall majority.  Supporters of independence may well have to decide which they think is more likely to bring about a second referendum – having more pro-independence MSPs or the SNP winning an overall majority."

Conclusions

If our poll had found Alba at 2 or 3% then it was dead, but 6% puts the party back in the game. Alba will need to make a move in other polls to back this up and then the list dynamic will start to change dramatically. For now, Alba seems to have convinced more SNP constituency voters to change their second vote but not universally in their favour and if Alba goes backwards from here then the Greens may go up a few more percentage points.

A supermajority is not a thing; it's spin, a majority of one is enough to set plans for a new independence referendum in place and this poll states there will be a Yes majority of 27 seats. So it is happening - probably in May or September 2022.

An SNP majority is also not a necessity for indyref2, but it has the feel of an undeniable mandate in the court of public opinion and that is what matters. Without it, the Westminster Government may feel more confident in their ability to say no for longer.

Alba supporters will point at these findings with relief but they have a lot more work to do before they are guaranteed seats and if they don’t match this poll's 6% in polls from other companies soon, their support may leak to the Greens and back to the SNP.

You may also like - Five things we learned from the second TV leaders' debate 

Recently several polling companies have manipulated figures at the request of unionist newspapers commissioning them and/or released false data showing support for Scottish independence has fallen below 50%. In those two cases it didn’t, but those polls were used to try to manage support for independence in a downwards direction, to try to make people feel that independence was not inevitable.

As the largest and most active independence campaigning organisation, Believe in Scotland and our members wanted a poll on both independence and on Holyrood voting intentions that could be trusted.

As a result we commissioned Panelbase, a major polling company based in England and a member of the British polling council; it is also a company we have regularly commissioned to carry out polls for us. The methodology used is standard and directly comparable to past polls by Panelbase for all clients. Furthermore, to demonstrate the absolute integrity of our Holyrood seat projections we engaged the nation’s leading pollster, Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University, to calculate our seat projections which we have published here. 

Our poll found headline support for Scottish independence at 51% and support for the Union at 49%, which represents no change from Panelbase’s last poll.

The survey of 1,002 Scottish residents over the age of 16 between 9th to 12th April (including undecided voters) found support for independence leading by 48% to 46%, with 6% defining themselves as Don’t Knows.

So what’s the story?

That a poll published by an organisation the Yes community can trust confirms that independence has a 2% lead is good news but it also shows that there is a great deal more work to be done for the Yes side. This is a realistic snapshot of where we are and to assume that independence is a foregone conclusion would be a tactical error.

However, assuming that there is a Yes majority in Holyrood after May’s Scottish elections, there will be a new independence referendum within the next few years. That will most likely take place in May 2022 or September/October 2022 and the Yes side will start the next campaign with majority support for independence, which is some 25% higher than at the start of the 2014 campaign.

Males and females polled matched the overall results 51% to 49%. However, the really striking data from the survey is the age group breakdown; respondents between the ages of 16 and 35 recorded a massive Yes lead of 72% to 28%. Females within that age group were 77% in favour of independence.

Respondents aged 35 to 54 returned a 50/50 draw with males at 53% Yes and females at 46% Yes.  As always, the older group of respondents aged 55+ was against independence and came in at 38% Yes to 62% No.

Opinion

The age demographics point to it simply being a matter of time before Scotland becomes independent. If young voters were as likely to vote as older ones Yes would win by a large margin already, so if the Yes campaign in the next independence referendum can engage young voters and motivate them to vote then a Yes result is inevitable.

Likewise, if the next Scottish Government was to make a commitment to increase pensions significantly in an independent Scotland then the resistance to independence within the older age group crumbles (yes, we polled that too and will release those figures later in the week).

The UK Government currently pays the worst pension in the developed world, as a percentage of final earnings. So we are not talking about a bribe to older voters but an investment in their wellbeing that every other developed nation in the world has been able to afford.

However, for a rise in pensions to be believed by older voters, the Scottish Government would have to abandon its outdated plans for managing the economy of an independent Scotland (the Sustainable Growth Commission). It would then need to commit to a Wellbeing based approach to build-back-better and put economic resilience, small company innovation, the environment, health and wellbeing at the heart of its economic plans for independence.

If the next Scottish Government and its allies after the Scottish Elections commit to that progressive and forward-thinking approach then a Yes vote of 60% becomes possible. If not, then it will be touch and go which side wins the next referendum.

The tone of the Sunday Times polling report is clearly one of a newspaper that is hugely disappointed, maybe even bitter, at the findings of its own survey.  The headline Nationalists on course to win supermajority is quickly followed by the subheading Poll boost for SNP and ‘unfit’ Salmond’s party.  

The poll finds Yes to independence leading No by 51% to 49% but that's not what makes it interesting.  

The Sunday Times Panelbase poll stands out in that it's the first to include the Alba party that also waited long enough after Alba's launch to have a real chance of estimating how many people might vote for them.    

There are still a number of questions about the poll’s accuracy regarding Alba due to their wording of the question. The assumption is that Sunday Times was not confident respondents would be fully aware of a party as new as Alba and it decided it needed some form of introduction and so added the description "led by Alex Salmond” when it asked the question. 

Either way this causes the following problems:

1. The difference between Panelbase’s estimate of 5.7% support for Alba (rounded up to 6%) versus Survation's 3.3% at the beginning of last week could be partially down to the naming of Salmond or it may just be the margin of error around a true current support level of 4%-5%. In his analysis of the results John Curtice points out that if the true vote is just one point less than the Panelbase estimate then the party’s estimated list seat tally would be halved from six to three
2. If the poll’s SNP option had a "Nicola Sturgeon for First Minister" label attached then the SNP total could also have been higher and Alba's lower.
3. We can't compare the two different pollsters to ask about Alba so far as like-for-like because they may just have a sampling base that finds different answers. We need another two polling companies to ask the same question (Survation polled too soon after the Alba launch to be credible) and then we can use an average of the latest three polls to get a clearer picture of what is really happening on the list vote.

You can see the archived Sunday Times piece here

Observations 

A supermajority isn’t actually a thing (in relation to holding a referendum), although the press are lapping up the term and that's not necessarily bad. However, a precedent was set in 2014 that a single-party SNP majority leads to a referendum. That isn't to completely discount a wider Yes majority in Holyrood. After all, a majority is a majority. There is, however, no requirement for a supermajority and there never has been. In fact, it’s dangerous to suggest that such a ‘supermajority’ is either better or necessary. If it fails to materialise Unionists will claim that as a failure. 

It is clear that a single-party SNP majority would be the most politically difficult outcome for Boris Johnson if he intends to try to say No to a Section 30-backed referendum. If the SNP achieves a majority in the May elections after having a commitment to holding a referendum in its manifesto it can legitimately claim to be speaking for the people. Obviously, additional Yes supporting MSPs from other parties would be a useful addition on top of that SNP majority.

You might be thinking that Boris Johnson can’t say no to a referendum anyway after any Yes majority and we would agree.  However, the question is just how politically damaging to the Union's cause would such a refusal be in the eyes of undecided voters?  An SNP majority would make it look extremely undemocratic and that would probably be worth a few more percentage points to Yes in a referendum than a multi-party majority.

If, however, friction within the Yes movement threatens to lower the SNP constituency tally then the political zeitgeist of the moment, that the SNP doesn’t need list seats to form a majority, goes right out the window. The Panelbase poll predicted an SNP majority of just one.

Alba’s most vocal supporters from the blogosphere and the Facebook Yes-bubble may seem to have fallen out with the SNP big time but the majority of Alba voters from the general public are simply looking for that supermajority and would switch back to voting SNP on the list if an SNP majority was at threat. Ironically the better the SNP looks in the constituencies the better Alba does on the list. 

The Sunday Times poll threw up some other surprises. It was a bit of a shock to see George Galloway's outfit All for Unity looking at 4% on the list. It must have mopped up the UKIP/Brexit party vote and maybe even taken some from the Conservatives.

Alba may have taken some list votes from both SNP and Greens but possibly also from some Yes-supporting Labour voters who can't bring themselves to vote SNP. The Greens may be benefiting from the idea that the SNP don't need their second vote and that a switch to a second Yes party is a good idea. Could some SNP supporters who are angry with and therefor will not vote Alba have switched to the Greens?

We won't know the answers to all these questions until a lot more polling has been done. Given the newness of some of the players and the chaotic nature of this campaign we may not even know until after election day itself.

We live in interesting times.

Scotland will vote on Thursday, May 6 2021 to decide the next government of Scotland. Believe in Scotland is non-party political and will never tell people how to vote, however, a lot of myths surround the voting system for Holyrood so this article will explain in simple terms how Scotland elects representatives to the Scottish Parliament.

This will be no run of the mill election as both independence supporting political parties have made a clear commitment to hold a new independence referendum if there is a majority for independence in the new parliament.

An SNP single-party majority (more than 65 MSPs) would replicate the result in 2011 that brought about the 2014 referendum but no one expected that majority result (including the SNP). This time, however, everyone expects the SNP to win and to win big, the only question is by how much, or will they achieve a majority again?  The polls indicate the Scottish Greens also likely to increase representation via the list vote from six in 2016 to around ten, so an independent supporting majority is pretty much a mathematical certainty.

The likelihood of the SNP almost sweeping the board in the first past the post/constituency vote has led to some claiming that a list vote for the SNP is a wasted vote and several parties were formed to stand on the list with a goal of maximising the number of Yes supporting MSPs. Those parties, known as pop-up parties, never looked to have gained enough traction for that plan to work. However, the two major ones have now stood down in favour of the new Alba party, led by former First Minister Alex Salmond.

The only poll so far to have asked people how they will vote thats includes Alba, shows Alba at 3% which, if that were the case on May 6, would mean it would not win any list seats. However, that poll was conducted so soon after the launch of Alba it cannot be seen as definitive. It's also worth stressing that, with a new player and all the coverage that comes with its leader, looking at past results CANNOT give you a reliable indication of what is likely to happen in May. Believe in Scotland has commissioned a poll from a major polling company and we will (at the right time) publish the results in a way that will offer more reliable guidance on the state of the parties. You can be assured that we will use the accepted polling and data weighting methodologies and so our poll will be as credible and definitive as a poll can be.

This article explains how the Holyrood Additional Member System (AMS) actually works.

Ten things you should know about how we elect MSPs to Holyrood

1. The Additional Member System (AMS) is the electoral system used by the Scottish Parliament to elect MSPs. It’s is a form of proportional representation intended to give political parties a proportionate share of MSPs across Scotland, compared to the percentage of the vote they gain.
2. This system involves two votes. Voters choose a candidate from a specific party from the names listed on the ballot paper to represent their constituency and the candidate with the most votes will be elected. This element of the Scottish electoral system directly elects 73 MSPs and is based on First Past the Post (FPTP), employed in the UK parliament elections. It is, under FPTP, possible for a party to come second in every single seat in the country and get zero candidates elected, thus FPTP is considered to be a poor system for delivering a just democratic result.
3. The second vote (the regional or list vote) differs from the first and adopts the AMS. Voters don’t choose a candidate but their preferred political party, to ensure overall representation of each political party is fair and allows for the allocation of 56 ‘additional member’ MSPs. 
4. After all constituency FPTP votes are elected, seven additional MSPs are allocated to each of the eight parliamentary regions - Central Scotland, Glasgow, Highlands and Islands, Lothians, Mid Scotland and Fife, North East Scotland, South Scotland and West Scotland - to make the overall representation proportionately fair.
5. Each party has its own selection process for the list and agrees in advance which candidates will accept the first list seat allocated to their party

6. List seats are allocated by counting the second/list votes for each party in each region and dividing those votes by one plus the number of seats the party gained in the FPTP elections.

• • So if Party A won two constituency seats under FPTP and gained 100,000 list votes they have 33,333 list votes to compare to the other parties.
  • If Party A wins the first of the allocated list seats when it comes to allocating the second list seat from that region their 100,000 list votes are now divided by four (the three MSPs they now have elected in that region plus one) so they only have 25,000 votes counting in the second round. 
  • If Party B had 110,000 list votes but three FPTP MSPs they would have 27,500 list votes that count (the three FPTP MSPs elected in that region plus one) and so although they were beaten by Party A in round one in round two Party B would win the next available list seat and so on until all the seven list seats are allocated from that region.

7. For larger parties such as the SNP, the regional vote can still be crucial. In 2011 the SNP won 53 constituency seats via the FPTP vote. However, it was the list vote that gave the SNP a parliamentary majority, resulting in the SNP gaining a further 16 seats taking the party to a total of 69 MSPs and a majority in parliament. Therefore, the SNP has always and will always encourage voters to make both their first and second vote in favour of the SNP. The significance of the regional vote is clear and should be considered as a form of democratic insurance in the election process.
8. Political parties that fail to use AMS properly can pay a heavy price. Indeed, in the 2011 Scottish Elections, the Labour party faced drastic consequences by not standing key candidates as additional members, assuming they would all win their seats. Ultimately many leading Labour MSPs that had served since 1999 lost their seats to the SNP and, after being replaced by SNP MSPs, did not succeed in getting re-elected.
9. The regional vote is also critical for smaller parties of Scotland. The Scottish Greens for example gain a lot of votes but never enough (so far) to unseat the leading parties in any of the FTPT elections. But they can gain seats via the list vote. The D’Hondt method that is used to calculate representation in the AMS, counts 100% of their list votes as they have no FPTP MSPs meaning their list vote is only divided by one until they get an MSP elected. In the 2016 election, the Scottish Green party had six MSPs elected through the list vote, accounting for the party’s entire parliamentary representation.
10. Any party that has a chance of or wants to be seen as having a chance of forming a future Scottish Government will demand members and supporters give both votes to their party. There are no alliances and if a party stands against another party in the list vote then they are opponents. The large parties see the list as insurance against not winning a FPTP seat because of some unexpected result and they will not give up that insurance willingly. The Scottish Greens stand some high profile candidates on the FPTP ballot as they believe that will mean more people will remember to vote for them on the list. Regardless of the situation in the other electoral regions, all polling indicates that the SNP will need list seats in South Scotland and Highlands and Islands to form a single-party majority, which is their aim.

    
    Don’t miss our poll or any of our articles - join our 18,600 strong Facebook page

Observations

The AMS is a fairer electoral system than the FPTP system used for UK general elections. It is incorrect to say list votes are wasted if they don’t elect a candidate from your party because your party has won FPTP seats. The party itself will want those list votes as insurance and doesn’t want opposition MSPs. SNP supporters who think the AMS system doesn't work for them should also remember that in the first Scottish Parliament elections the SNP won on seven FPTP seats and 28 list seats for a total of 35 SNP MSPs and that those list MSPs, their wages and staffing budgets transformed the SNP into the party that is currently dominant in Scotland. No AMS - no 2014 referendum and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon herself relied on the list vote between 1999 and 2007 to be elected.

There is, however, a mathematical argument that representation of independence supporting MSPs can be boosted in some regions by SNP voters giving their second vote to another party on the list. Indeed the Greens may well benefit significantly from SNP voters feeling the SNP doesn’t need insurance in its electoral region. Adding more list parties means the Yes vote on the list will be diluted but with a major political figure leading a third list party, it is just possible they will be able to get enough votes to get some candidates elected. Polling may suggest this is not the case but it is too early to tell yet; the BiS poll will be more definitive and that will help people to make up their minds.