Ten Years On: Brexit Was an English Project, Not a British One — and a Step Towards Scottish Independence
Ten years on from Brexit, three nations of the UK - Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland all have First Ministers who want to leave the Union. That is no coincidence.
The Brexit referendum had no mechanism to ensure that each nation’s say was respected. The Scottish government's requests for negotiation over how the outcome was delivered were sneeringly ignored. There was never any attempt by Westminster to secure Scottish buy-in to the Brexit project. Brexit is an English project, not a British one.
Scotland and Northern Ireland both voted to Remain in the EU. In Scotland, there was a hefty majority of 62%, and every council area voted Remain.
Two years earlier, in the independence referendum, the UK government had argued that Scotland should ‘lead not leave’ and told Scots that a No to independence was the only way to secure Scotland’s EU membership. So it has been insulting to have Scotland’s democratically expressed wishes on something so important as membership of the EU comprehensively ignored.
Scots notice the massive contrast between how the UK treats its member countries and how the EU does, with individual countries each having a say through the Council of Ministers.
This has fed into a demand for independence that is strong, growing and will not go away. Young Scots are keen to leave the UK and get on with building a stronger country - they are more than 60% in favour of independence.
Sign our petition on Scotland’s right to choose.
Scotland’s best chance of rejoining the EU is as an independent country
A massive seven in ten Scots want Scotland to rejoin the EU. Polling shows that a large majority across European countries would warmly welcome an independent Scotland. Scotland’s best chance of re-entering the EU is now as an independent country.
It has become clear that there is no way the UK will get back into the EU in the foreseeable future. EU leaders know that the likely next government will rip up any deals done - both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage have said they would do this. EU leaders are not keen to negotiate with an unstable UK - now about to see its seventh PM in ten years.
There have been Brexit benefits - for the EU
In many ways, Brexit has been good for the EU. Seeing Brexit’s negative effects on Britain has increased support for EU membership across the board. In Switzerland recently, Beat Jans, Switzerland’s justice minister, was able to point to the way post-Brexit Britain experienced an increased number of asylum seekers, not a decrease. It helped the government win the argument on a referendum about migration.
The UK, with its closeness to America, might have blocked the European Commission’s agreement in 2024 to set up a defence arm - prior to Brexit, the UK objected to anything that was seen as undermining NATO. The EU has also started to develop a defence industrial strategy and, during Covid, the EU began issuing bonds in its own name. These were the kinds of federalised policies that the UK tended to oppose - which in turn would make it more politically difficult for the UK to rejoin.
Brexit has made the Union a whole lot less attractive
Historically, the union’s big pitch to Scots was that it opened doors and created opportunity. From working in a ski resort or a bar in Spain to becoming part of the European Union’s machinery of government, many Scots were happy to grasp these possibilities. These were very attractive to a country with a long tradition of forced and economic emigration. (Ireland remains well represented in EU institutions,)
Scots could also take the road to London which, when the UK was in the EU, operated as a hub between Europe and America. This meant there were lots of opportunities there too. The downside was the drain of talent and resources from Scotland but, on an individual basis, ambitious and talented Scots were able to benefit. Since Brexit, London has slipped from one of the top financial markets in the world to number 23 in terms of the value of IPOs. When London lost frictionless access to the European market, it weakened one of its biggest advantages.
Nowadays Scotland is tied to a drifting, fading England that is turning in on itself and becoming a political cesspit where far-right leaders of the likes of Nigel Farage drive the political agenda. It is a lot less attractive as an offer. This shift has coincided with a growing belief that Scottish independence would boost our citizens’ wellbeing. Scots want the government they elect every time - for example, our energy grid was privatised by a Westminster government with only a handful of Scottish MPs. We are now suffering the highest energy poverty rates in Europe as a result.
Scotland has suffered the worst economic damage
It is now clear that Scotland has suffered more under Brexit than any other country in the UK. The Herald had a front page splash last week “Brexit has made Scotland £30 billion a year worse off” about a new report calculating the loss to Scotland’s economy. (Read about the economic damage to Scottish businesses on Business for Scotland.)
Independence supporters won’t be surprised to hear that this was not given equal prominence in London-based newspapers or the BBC. In fact, almost all the commentary on the tenth anniversary has ignored the perspectives of the other three nations of the union. They write “Britain” when they mean “England”.
The London media can ignore it all they want - but it doesn’t change the reality that Brexit is one reason why support for Scottish independence is now regularly polling above 50%. In Northern Ireland in 2015, support for a united Ireland was just 15% - now it is usually around 42% - but one recent poll had it as high as 61%. There has been a huge rise in a decade.
Northern Ireland is still in the EU and it is doing better
The report Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence contrasts the economic picture in Scotland with that in Northern Ireland. While 93% of council areas in Scotland underperform against the projection of where they would be without Brexit, 93% of Northern Irish ones have overperformed.
The part of Northern Ireland that has done worse than if Brexit had never happened is the port of Larne, which historically did well out of goods being transported to the EU via the UK. (Because of the Brexit red tape, they now tend to go straight to the EU by ferry from Irish ports.)
Brexit has really changed the picture for Northern Ireland. It is effectively part of the EU. It is also supposedly still part of the UK, but in fact as EU rules diverge from British ones, it is increasingly diverging - trade flows are altering with more going to the Republic. Almost half of people in Northern Ireland now have Irish passports. A majority of Northern Irish people expect Ireland to be unified in the next 20 years.
Conclusion
Nearly all of the commentary in the UK media about Brexit is about England. There is very little interest in the perspective of the other constituent countries of the UK. They refer to it as a British project. It is not.
England has chosen its path - it is outside the EU for the foreseeable future. Scotland did not choose that path. We have been dragged against our clearly expressed democratic wishes into an ill-starred enterprise which has made us much more exposed in an unstable world.
Scotland’s best chance to be part of a Union where individual member countries all have a place at the table is by exiting the UK and rejoining the EU.
Scotland wants its right to choose. Scotland is ready to build a better future as a strong, prosperous country back in the EU.
Sign our petition on Scotland’s right to choose.
