September 23, 2026

Three democratic tests aced - one result: Scottish voters Demand the right to choose their future

Yesterday the Scottish Parliament debated what should be a simple democratic principle: Scotland is a sovereign nation and has the right to decide its own future.

The Scottish Government's motion put before MSPs stated exactly that, and the Scottish Greens have also proposed an amendment recognising that May's election returned the biggest-ever majority of pro-independence MSPs - which it did. Simple, right? Except the unionist politicians made the most ridiculous anti-democratic claims and engaged in cringeworthy scaremongering that no sane person could take seriously. Reform even stormed out in a huff.

The vote did not go down constitutional party lines as projected, with Scottish Labour joining the Scottish Greens and the SNP to agree that Scotland is a nation that has a right to decide our own future. The vote was 84 for and 18 against, with Reform taking a strop and refusing to vote.

This week's Norstat polling, commissioned by Believe in Scotland, shows that this forms part of a much bigger picture. We tested the democratic principle set out by the Prime Minister himself, before testing two further routes through which Scotland could demonstrate democratic support for another independence referendum.

On all three, the balance of Scottish public opinion is in favour of the Scottish people having the right to choose Scotland's future.

Andy Burnham's Test: Do a majority of Scots want another referendum?

Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently said that he was not aware of majority public support for another independence referendum and that until that changed there would not be one.

So we polled on that principle directly, asking whether people thought that the UK Government should agree to a new referendum when there is clear majority public support for holding one.

Among Scottish voters who expressed a view, the answer was overwhelming: 67% said Yes and only 33% said No.

In other words, two-thirds agree with the principle that majority public support should trigger a democratic response. And our polling has already found that 68% believe another referendum should take place at some point, with only 20% saying there should never be another one.

Burnham set the test. The polling shows that test has been met. Test Passed

So, with Burnham's own test already met, we tested public opinion against two further democratic principles for another referendum. On both, the balance of opinion points in the same direction: Scotland should have the right to choose its own future.

Further test one: Should Scotland have a clear legal route to another referendum?

We also asked people to choose between two different constitutional systems.

Should Scotland have a clear legal right to another referendum after a fixed period, similar to the mechanism that exists for Northern Ireland (as suggested by Burnham himself in Westminster), or should Westminster retain unilateral control over whether Scotland is ever allowed to vote again?

Removing those who did not state a preference, 63% of respondents backed the fixed-interval legal right. Just 37% wanted Westminster to retain unilateral control. Of all respondents, 18.9% did not know.

The constitutional battle is a mess right now - not because there is a debate, but because there is no agreed democratic mechanism for resolving that disagreement for Scotland, Northern Ireland or Wales - and that is as ridiculous as it is anti-democratic.

The polling clearly demonstrates that, when given the choice, the people of Scotland favour a defined democratic route over leaving the decision entirely in Westminster's hands.

Further test number one - Test Passed

Further test two: What if Scotland elects a pro-independence majority?

Yesterday's Holyrood vote has now recognised that pro-independence parties hold a majority and therefore have a mandate for indyref2

We asked whether the Scottish Parliament should have the power to hold an independence referendum following an election which returns a pro-independence majority and where Holyrood subsequently votes to hold one.

Of the respondents who expressed a preference, 57.5% said Yes, compared with 42.5% who said No.

May's election returned 58 SNP MSPs and 15 Scottish Green MSPs, giving pro-independence parties 73 seats in the 129-seat Parliament. The Scottish Parliament's own election analysis confirms the numbers.

Yesterday, that parliamentary majority was joined by most of the Labour MSPs in voting to confirm Scotland's right to decide its own future.

Further test number two - Test Passed

To be clear, we now have:

A clear public majority for another referendum.

A clear majority supporting a legal mechanism to trigger another referendum.

And an electoral mandate followed by an even bigger majority vote of the Scottish Parliament.

Ask the Scottish public about any of those routes and the majority supports a democratic path to another referendum. That fact is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore - the writing is on the wall and even Scottish Labour had to admit that Yesterday.

OK so now Holyrood has voted - what happens if Westminster simply keeps saying No?

We also investigated the consequences of Westminster's continued refusal to agree terms. We asked what effect it would have on people's support for independence if there were sustained majority support for another referendum but Westminster continued to refuse one.

42% said continued refusal would make them more supportive of independence, while only 8% said it would make them less supportive.

So roughly five times as many people say Westminster's refusal would move their opinion towards independence as those who say it would move them away from it - with 41% saying it would make no difference.

Among current Labour voters, 43.5% said continued refusal would make them more supportive of independence, against only 14.3% saying less supportive. You might wonder if Scottish Labour have private polling that told them this prior to yesterday's vote, as that would explain a lot. Labour voters who support independence would be far more likely to stop voting Labour at elections, if they personally became more supportive of independence and Labour stayed stubbornly unionist.

Interestingly, amongst people born in England and now living in Scotland, 34.4% said it would make them more supportive of independence and just 3.4% less supportive.

Continued Westminster refusal is not without cost to the Unionist side.

For a large part of the Scottish electorate, denying a referendum even where sustained majority support exists appears far more likely to strengthen support for independence than to weaken it.

Yesterday’s Holyrood debate is therefore now backed up by a much wider body of evidence.

Scotland has elected a record pro-independence parliamentary majority. Holyrood has now affirmed the Scottish people's right to choose Scotland’s future. A majority of Scottish voters support a referendum when there is clear public demand for one (which there is). And a majority of those expressing a view say Holyrood should have the power following an electoral mandate.