Burnham's Brexit referendum U-turn will backfire

Andy Burnham has indicated that the United Kingdom can revisit Brexit after 10 years and “we could go all the way” and rejoin the European Union. UK Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy has also said that the “question of Europe was not settled forever”.

Quite right. A decade is a long time in politics. Circumstances change, public opinion changes and millions of new voters join the electoral roll. No democratic decision should permanently deny future generations their say.

But Labour now has a problem. If ten years is long enough for the UK to reconsider Brexit, how can it argue that twelve years is not long enough for Scotland to reconsider its place in the United Kingdom?

You cannot argue that one constitutional decision can be revisited because time has passed and circumstances have changed, while insisting that Scotland’s decision must stand indefinitely. 

Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why this approach will backfire on the UK Government. 

Labour’s double standard is impossible to defend

It has now been 12 years since Scotland voted on independence in 2014. Since then, Scotland has left the European Union despite voting overwhelmingly to Remain, the political and economic landscape has changed dramatically, and an entire generation of young Scots has become eligible to vote.

At the last Scottish election, Scotland elected the biggest-ever majority of pro-independence MSPs to Holyrood. The Scottish Parliament has also voted by an overwhelming majority to support Scotland’s right to determine its own constitutional future.

The UK Government's continued refusal on another independence referendum is becoming an increasingly difficult position to justify when senior Labour Government figures are simultaneously arguing that the UK's relationship with Europe can be reconsidered because time has passed and circumstances have changed.

If ten years is long enough for the UK to reconsider Brexit, how can Labour argue that twelve years is not long enough for Scotland to reconsider its place in the United Kingdom?

This is bigger than whether someone currently supports Yes or No. It is about a basic democratic principle: the people who live in Scotland should have the right to decide Scotland's future. Indeed, Labour’s MSPs agreed when they voted in support of Scotland’s right to determine it’s own future.

Democracy cannot mean having another vote when the UK Government wants to reconsider its relationship with Europe, while denying Scotland the same opportunity to reconsider its relationship with the United Kingdom.

Labour can’t undo the damage Brexit has done to Scotland

We have seen what a disaster Brexit is. But the UK’s EU pitch won’t convince Scots. The UK government’s hope that their new line on the EU will bring them support in Scotland is forlorn. Scotland is the hardest hit of any UK nation by Brexit. An academic study, Measuring the Regional Economic Cost of Brexit: Evidence, reports that Brexit has left Scotland almost £30 billion a year worse off.

Scotland warned against Brexit, voted overwhelmingly against it and was taken out of the EU anyway. Labour talking about another EU referendum will only aid the point that Scottish voters made a different choice and were ignored.

Reopening Brexit could hand Farage and Reform a political gift

A serious Labour attempt to reverse Brexit could reignite that divide, energise Reform’s base and give the party a powerful cause to organise around again. With Reform already presenting itself as a government-in-waiting, Labour would risk turning the next General Election into another battle over Brexit and giving Farage an issue capable of uniting voters on the right behind him. By itself that is not a reason to not push for another referendum but doing so without a clear achievable plan is very risky and it doesn't look like Burnham has that clear achievable plan – as we go on to make clear.

There would also no doubt be more money on the table for Reform from their friends in the US, who have made unprecedented donations to the party in recent weeks, to help them do exactly that.

The UK won’t get offered the same deal a second time

For the UK to rejoin the EU would be a long and uncertain road. Why would the EU enter serious negotiations with Burnham without confidence that any agreement would survive a future change of government, particularly with Farage and the right strongly opposed to rejoining and ready to reopen the Brexit battle all over again?

Furthermore, the UK had negotiated opt-outs and a valuable rebate which are very unlikely to be offered again. 

• Economic and Monetary Union (Eurozone): Under the Maastricht Treaty (Protocol No. 25), the UK had an opt-out from adopting the euro as its currency, allowing it to retain the British pound and its own monetary policy. [1]

• Area of Freedom, Security and Justice (AFSJ): The UK negotiated a flexible, case-by-case opt-in/opt-out arrangement for justice and home affairs laws, including a 2014 block opt-out from pre-Lisbon police and criminal justice measures. [1, 2]

• Charter of Fundamental Rights: The UK secured a protocol clarifying and limiting how the European Court of Justice (ECJ) could apply the Charter to national labour and social laws. [1]

• Social Chapter (Former): The UK initially opted out of the Social Chapter (which dealt with employment rights and social policy) under the Maastricht Treaty, though the Labour government opted back into it when it was incorporated into the Treaty of Amsterdam in 1997. [1]

• "Ever Closer Union" Exemption (Former): During the 2015–2016 renegotiation prior to the Brexit referendum, the UK negotiated a formal exemption from the EU's goal of an "ever closer union", though this never took legal effect due to the vote to leave. [1, 2, 3, 4]

The UK cannot simply undo Brexit and expect to walk back into the privileged deal it chose to abandon. Rejoining would mean starting again, with fewer guarantees, fewer special arrangements and no certainty that the EU would offer anything close to the terms the UK once enjoyed.

Labour’s EU U-turn could strengthen the case for Scottish independence as an independent Scotland would be much more likely to get a good deal

The EU would be much more likely to offer a good deal to an independent Scotland. Scotland’s support for EU membership is strong and consistent. Scotland voted to stay in the EU across every council area and it was dragged out against its will. The UK refused to negotiate or even acknowledge Scotland’s choice. That decision broke trust with Scottish voters.

Now, by reopening the debate over EU membership, it will become clear that Scotland has an alternative and better route to rejoining the EU and that Scotland has an even stronger case for a new independence referendum.

Labour cannot argue that ten years is long enough to rethink Brexit while twelve years is too soon for Scotland to rethink its future. If the UK has the right to choose again, so does Scotland.