Celtic Exit poll finds Yes rises to almost 60% as national civic movements meet.

New polling has found that support for Scottish independence rises to almost 60% if Scottish voters become convinced that Northern Ireland is moving towards a united Ireland and Wales towards independence.

The finding comes as the leading campaigning organisations in the three Celtic nations Believe in Scotland, YesCymru and Ireland’s Future have met in Cardiff to begin building greater cooperation between the civic movements for Scottish and Welsh independence and Irish reunification. The meeting was hosted and invitations organised by Yes Cymru. Believe in Scotland will host a larger more inclusive meeting in the Spring of 2027 - ensuring that active groups right across Scotland’s broad independence movement are invited. We will soon start pulling together an organising committee that involves representatives of active national groups across Scotland to plan the event.

The Norstat poll, commissioned by Believe in Scotland, initially found independence ahead at 52% Yes to 48% No.

But when respondents were asked how they would vote if they became convinced that Northern Ireland was moving towards a united Ireland and Wales towards independence, support for Scottish independence rose to 59.5% Yes, with No falling to 40.5%.

That is a 7.7 percentage point increase in support for Scottish independence.

Significantly, 8.7% of people who currently say they would vote No moved to Yes under the Celtic Exit scenario, while only 1%  moved the other way. The movement was also not confined to one demographic. Support for Yes increased by 9.3 points amongst people who voted No in 2014 and by around nine points amongst Labour voters to 43% Yes. Women aged 35 to 54 recorded one of the largest movements, at 11.7 points.

The smallest shifts were amongst Leave voters, Conservative voters and older men, but even those groups recorded some movement towards Yes. The poll found a 3% increase in Reform voters supporting Yes but independence support amongst Reform voters was already high meaning the new figure topped out at 33% Yes. 

The findings of this important poll clearly show that the direction of the wider constitutional change within the other celtic nations can have a significant impact on how people in Scotland think about independence.

It also follows a major change in the political relationship between the three nations. Earlier this month, the First Ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, alongside Sinn Féin President Mary Lou McDonald, met in Cardiff to discuss greater cooperation on constitutional change. 

Believe in Scotland has argued since we published our New Path to Independence strategy in spring 2025 that Scotland should not approach constitutional change in isolation and that cooperation between the three Celtic nations could fundamentally alter the political context. We wrote to Yes Cymru and Ireland's Future in December last year and arranged for several Zoom calls. Yes Cymru pulled the Friday Oct 23rd meeting together in short-order inviting the three lead civic campaigning organisations from each nation (and organisations they already had a direct relationship with) to Cardiff to share best practices and discuss strategy.

Believe in Scotland was represented by our Operations Manager Marcus MacIntyre-Kemp, with Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp attending as the CEO of Business for Scotland. Also attending were the SDLP, Green Party Wales, Common Weal and the Scottish Independence Forum. 

The meeting discussed practical cooperation amongst the lead groups, including sharing research and polling, communications, campaign expertise, youth engagement activity and coordinated responses to political developments. Participants agreed to meet again in Ireland later this year, followed by a further larger open gathering in Scotland in spring of 2027.

Believe in Scotland founder Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp said:

“Our polling demonstrates the need for this growing cooperation. For too long Scottish independence has been treated in the media as if Scotland is having a constitutional argument with Westminster in isolation. Unionists then tried to frame that as just anti-Englishness but that is no longer possible under this new political reality. If all three of Westminster's devolved partners want a divorce then it's clear that Westminster is the problem. 

“Wales and Ireland are at different stages of their own constitutional journeys to Scotland but our poll shows that what happens in the other Celtic nations can significantly change how Scottish voters view Scotland’s future. Over the last few months at Local Indy Campaign Days in Prestwick, Musselburgh, Stirling, Blairgowrie, Glasgow and Elgin, our members have been teaming up with local Yes Groups to deliver our Celtic Exit leaflets that explain that all three Celtic nations are on a journey out of the UK. We knew instinctively that the message would hit home and now we have the polling evidence to prove it. We also held a National Day of Action in August with 150 leafleting teams delivering the Celtic Exit message right across Scotland and have now distributed around 75,000 copies of the leaflet. We campaign whilst others just complain.    

“Building direct relationships between Believe in Scotland, YesCymru and Ireland’s Future is useful for the sharing of ideas and best practices but it's also becoming increasingly strategically relevant. Cardiff was just the first step and I look forward to the next meeting in Ireland and then welcoming the Celtic nations' movements to Scotland for a major event in the spring that will be open to the whole Scottish independence movement as we discuss the way to end this broken union.”

Note: The Norstat poll was commissioned by Believe in Scotland and surveyed 1,001 Scottish adults aged 16 and over between 15 and 18 September. The standard independence question in the poll put Yes on 52% among decided voters.