New poll finds independence Support rises to 65% with Farage as Prime Minister

Written by Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Nigel Farage and Reform UK may be generating some pretty bad press in the last few weeks, but nobody should assume that means the possibility of a Reform government has disappeared.

In a clear step towards the Americanisation of UK politics, Reform has just received an extraordinary £72 million from two crypto-trading billionaire donors. That gives Reform financial resources on a scale never heard of before in UK politics. Reform says it intends to use the money to build a much more professional campaigning operation, including hundreds of paid campaign staff.

For context, political parties face a national spending limit of roughly £34 million during the regulated period before a UK General Election if they contest every seat in the next Westminster parliamentary election. Outside that regulated period there is currently no equivalent overall cap; this is one reason the UK Government is now looking to change the rules - it's too late, and this makes the UK Government look like the party that wants to cheat!

Farage is under a parliamentary standards investigation over a separate £5 million personal gift he received shortly before returning to frontline politics in 2024. You might think that Farage is bought and paid for by people whose interests are not aligned with the wellbeing of the people who vote for him - we, on the other hand, couldn't possibly comment. Farage says the gift was personal and non-political; if that didn't make you laugh, you should maybe read it again. Police are separately investigating allegations involving Reform funding following an undercover investigation, while two senior Reform figures stepped down pending an internal investigation.

There have also been problems at council level. Three Reform councillors at Durham County Council resigned from the party last week following allegations of bullying and concerns about how complaints were handled.

The polling picture has changed too. Reform remains one of the three largest parties in the UK, but the latest YouGov poll puts it on 21%, tied with the Conservatives and two points behind Labour. Also, don't rule out a Tory/Reform alliance as that would dominate English electoral politics. 21% is Reform's lowest poll number on YouGov's political tracker. But they won't stay there with the money they now have at their disposal.

So what would a Reform victory at the next UK election mean for Scotland? Our new Norstat poll asked exactly that.

Our standard independence Yes or No question produced 52% Yes to 48% No.

But then we asked how people would vote if Reform won the next UK General Election and Nigel Farage became Prime Minister, support for independence rose to 65% Yes against 35% No. That is a 13-point increase in the Yes share if Farage becomes the UK PM.

This is not the first poll to find a large Farage effect. A Find Out Now poll for The National in December 2024 had independence at 52% among decided voters but found it rising to 60% if Farage became Prime Minister, an eight-point increase.

Our new poll finds an even larger difference - so has Scotland started to see Reform and Farage for the Scotland-hating far-right apologists that they are?

Yesterday's Holyrood debate provides some interesting context. The Scottish Parliament voted 84 to 18 that Scotland has the right to decide its own future. Reform attempted to stop the debate taking place and then its MSPs walked out in a strop rather than participate in the final decision.

OK so what about Reform getting voted for in Scotland? Well, Holyrood 2026 was peak Reform and they did not win a single constituency - we also polled Westminster and Holyrood voting intentions and we will publish those soon - but take a hint: I did just say Scotland was past peak Reform.

I wouldn't wish a Reform government and a Farage premiership on my worst enemy, never mind my best friends and neighbours, but if England is going to elect them by their own choice then it will break the Union - if there is still a Union at the next Westminster election.