The road to independence mapped out
Believe in Scotland’s plan to End London Rule.
Executive Summary
A perfect storm is forming that will finally bring an end to the Union – if we are ready to seize the moment.
In 2026 the SNP are likely to win the Holyrood election and form or at least lead the next Scottish Government and they will demand an independence referendum. Wales will move towards independence under a new Plaid Cymru led administration, and in 2027 Sinn Féin will win in Northern Ireland and call for an All-Ireland unification referendum. Meanwhile, England is heading for an English nationalist Reform/Farage government. The four nations are moving in opposite directions and the UK’s will be finished.
This is what Believe in Scotland is getting ready for and why we signed a new Memorandum of Understanding with the SNP to work closely together to drive our nation towards independence and to build a united movement through a repurposed BiS Scottish Independence Congress.
The goal is clear: should the SNP prove unable to force a second referendum we must make the 2029 UK General Election a de facto referendum on independence. We called for Holyrood 2026 to be a de facto referendum but political upheaval and the 2024 GE setback mean that SNP aren't yet ready for that fight, the SNP, the wider movement, and Scotland’s economic case still need time to prepare. Support for independence is high, but turning that into a de facto referendum based on a majority of list votes is a huge risk now and we cannot risk falling short when a far more likely road to independence is coming into view.
Between now and 2029, a step-by-step campaign will rebuild momentum, readiness and unity:
A new Scottish Constitutional Convention forms to assert Scotland’s right to decide its future, backed by civic groups, unions and charities.
Holyrood elections return an SNP-led government; the Scottish Independence Congress launches and reunites the Yes entire movement; the Scottish Citizens’ Convention invites the public to co-create a vision for a better, fairer, wellbeing-based Scotland.
Sinn Féin pushes for Irish unification, Wales edges closer to independence as it is on the same road as Scotland, and continuing disdain for Scotland from Labour and the likelihood of a future Reform-led England makes contrasts with our now detailed and hopeful plans for independence and the Union is dead in the water.
By then, the Scottish Government will have produced i-GERS - the economic truth showing Scotland can thrive independently. The Citizens’ Convention will publish a Blueprint for a Better Nation, shaping Scotland’s next steps.
If the SNP's plan to force a referendum through its Scotland’s Right to Decide campaign works it will likely be in September 2028 - We think it more likely that we are heading to the next General Election with the Scottish people wanting independence and angry that a referendum will never be allowed.
The UK General Election becomes Scotland’s moment of choice. The de facto referendum: independence or Farage’s Britain - Scotland’s independence and wellbeing or the UKs inevitable socioeconomic decline. A Yes majority would mandate immediate negotiations for independence, setting up the creation of national institutions, international recognition and, if required, a confirmatory referendum on the settlement itself.
If Scotland takes this path, independence in all but name could be achieved by the end of 2029, with full sovereignty following an agreed transition period by January 1st 2031.
But it will only happen if we make it happen. If we work to convince the people that independence is Scotland's better future. There is no shortcut, no waiting for permission, it’s demand or force. The movement must reunite, campaign hard, and prepare now - because Scotland’s window of opportunity is opening.
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The Road to Independence: Key Bodies Explained
Scottish Independence Congress
Hosted by Believe in Scotland - Seeks to Reunite the entire independence movement political parties, local Yes groups, think tanks, and campaign organisations. Coordinates strategy, messaging, and national campaigns to ensure Scotland speaks with one voice on the path to independence.
The Scottish Constitutional Convention
A coalition of civic organisations, charities, unions, and political parties focused on Scotland’s democratic right to decide its own future. Champion's civic engagement pressures Westminster to accept Scotland's right to decide its own constitutional future. If the Scottish people want a referendum they get one, if they want independence they get that.
Scottish Citizens’ Convention
A people-powered forum for co-creating a “Blueprint for a Better Scotland.” Engages citizens and community groups to shape the nation’s future, focusing on wellbeing, economy, and public services, ensuring independence is guided by the people themselves. Then we see what the constitutional system can deliver against the hopes and dreams of the Scottish people - it won't be the union.