Wellbeing Economy and Pension policy pushes independence support to 63%

The point of our latest Norstat poll was not simply to ask whether Scotland would vote Yes or No in a referendum held tomorrow. We wanted to test what kind of independence Scotland’s people might actually vote for. Message testing is really important and it needs to be followed up on with focus groups and further debate. However, the key thing is that message testing doesn't just tell you where support is but where it is actually possible to take the support level with a bit of political courage and imagination.

For too long now, ever since the independence campaign kicked off in 2011, the political arm of the indy movement has worked on the assumption that the safest offer is the least radical one. Don't frighten the horses. Don't change too much - you will still get the BBC (err no thanks). It has concentrated on reassuring voters that independence can look very much like what we have now. But that is nonsense. It didn't win in 2014 and it might not even win now, despite the fact that most polls, including our own, have Yes in the lead.

The baseline result in our poll was 52% Yes among decided voters. 

When we asked people how they would vote if independence meant Scotland adopting a Wellbeing Economic Approach, giving quality of life, fairness, health, equality, happiness and environmental sustainability equal weight alongside economic growth, support for independence rose to 60%.

But when we added a guarantee of a Wellbeing Pension of at least £275 a week, support increased again to 63%.

That is an 11-point difference from the standard independence question and the strongest positive policy proposition we tested - First Yes Scotland and then the SNP have been leading the most conservative independence campaign in modern history. Believe in Scotland is growing almost exponentially and we put a lot of that down to the fact that we don't just want independence; we want it for a purpose. A better Scotland, yes, but also to end the broken neoliberal economic system that assumes greed is good and replace it with one that is driven by a goal of collective wellbeing. 

The latter will create more jobs and more growth and higher government revenues but the growth it creates will be sustainable growth in tune with the needs of society and the planet.

Among those respondents who say they would currently vote No on the base question, around 10% moved to Yes when offered the Wellbeing Economy proposition alone. Add the £275 Wellbeing Pension and that rises to 14% moved. Support for the Union is soft - they just need a reason to move to Yes and we need to give them one.

Among C2DE voters, the difference is even more striking. Support for independence starts at around 52% and rises to 64% when the Wellbeing Pension is included.

So this isn't simply evidence that voters are attracted to the words "wellbeing economy". It suggests that support increases further when the principle is turned into something practical that people can immediately understand and see affecting their lives.

A £275 guarantee would currently be around £34 a week higher than the full new UK State Pension of £241.30. However, there has also been an important development since our poll was carried out.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has since announced that the existing pension triple lock will remain until 2030 but will then be changed, with the savings intended to help finance his proposed National Care Service for England (Scotland already has one). We therefore cannot know how people would respond to the £275 Wellbeing Pension proposition today. But it is entirely reasonable to ask whether the 63% figure may prove conservative now that voters have a clearer alternative against which to compare it. Read more about Burnham's pension raid here 

Time to end the English voters’ gripe

Not from Believe in Scotland members, but there are some people within the movement that complain that English-born voters are keeping the Union alive. However, that is not the whole story as there are several ways to get those New-Scots voters on board with the independence project.

Our ‘what if Farage was going to be PM’ question produced the biggest movement amongst people born in England and living in Scotland. Only 40% of English-born respondents backed Yes in the standard question. If Nigel Farage was to become Prime Minister, that would increase dramatically to 58%. But Farage isn't the only issue capable of producing an English-born voter majority.

A Wellbeing Economy increased English-born support to 52%, and adding the Wellbeing Pension took it to 53%.  it also works well for what is traditionally the most group for Yes which is Older women: female 55+ voters moved from 32.6% Yes baseline to 46.6% with the pension proposition, roughly a 14-point difference.

So what we are lacking as a movement is a cohesive shared progressive vision of the Scotland the people want to live in. That is exactly why Believe in Scotland has been arguing for a Scottish Citizens' Convention. A convention to capture the hopes and dreams of the people of Scotland - to co-create a vision that people will vote for in their droves and that London rule can never deliver.

Independence gives us one opportunity to ask the people of Scotland what kind of country they want to build, not just yes or no to a cold constitutional question that seems to many like one set of politicians wanting the powers that others have, but powers for a purpose.

The poll suggests that voters can respond positively to significant change, particularly when that change is tangible and improves people's lives. Before Scotland is asked to make its choice a second time, we must understand this properly.