New Poll Result: Wellbeing Economy points to 66% SUPERMAJORITY for Scottish Independence

By Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp

Make no mistake, this is a breakthrough result for Scottish independence. It demonstrates that, with the right message, there is a path to a 66% supermajority for Scottish independence. Two thirds of Scottish voters would support independence if independence were predicated on a Wellbeing Economic Approach with The Wellbeing Pension. More than that, the poll found that of the groups that are least likely to support independence, all of them moved to majority support in answer to this poll question. Meaning a Yes majority amongst demographics known for showing lower support for independence; Females aged over 55, Labour voters and English born voters, is possible if we make the right case for independence. 

This is not a suggestion for changing the Yes/No question. It is a suggestion for changing the story we tell about our future as an independent country. If we change the way we talk about what Yes means, if we move away from tribalistic political discourse towards evangelising about the better nation we plan to create, if we give independence a purpose, we will win our independence.

So let’s start by talking about creating positive change through independence instead of sticking to the 10 year old ‘don't scare the horses thinking’ that lost in 2014 - The Scotland of 2024 is a very different place. 

Background

Earlier this month a poll by Norstat (commissioned by The Times) found Scottish independence up 6% to 54%. Believe in Scotland added questions to that poll investigating the impact of various policy options to independence support. Last week we published our finding that if the case for independence were predicated on an independent Scotland being a republic rather than a monarchy, support rose 5% to 59%. To be clear, it was the same respondents on the same day just minutes after they had given the 54% Yes response so, the results are directly comparable.  

We were expecting a modest bump in independence support given the Scottish Government’s well received budget, Starmer’s Winter Fuel Payment idiocy (and more) and a sympathetic focus on indy following the passing of Alex Salmond. We were not expecting 54% and in truth, that may be temporary as things change quickly in politics. 

Testing Policy Impact

It's a well recognised principle in the polling industry that if you add certain specific conditions to a question you have previously asked it can tease out more of the meaning behind the data and the potential impact of various policy approaches.  Asking the Yes/NO question with specific conditions, giving a major boost or fall, can indicate what policy areas we should or could focus on to improve support. Now, more research is required, but we should start talking about those conditions with a little more urgency.  However, the more you ask the same question and receive the same answer the more you can start to bet that you have put your finger on the pulse of the nation. That is what we have done repeatedly with our questions on how a move to a Wellbeing Economy impacts on support for Scottish independence. 

First let's look at the data. 

The base question (asking Should Scotland be an independent country?) came back at 54%. We added a question that we have asked several times before on the Wellbeing Economy and then another including the Wellbeing Pension to see if addressing the UK’s poverty-pension would attract people to an independent Scotland.

First we asked the Wellbeing Economy Question:

If an independent Scotland meant that Scotland would implement a Wellbeing Economic Approach (a plan that recognises that quality of life, equality, fairness, sustainability, happiness, and health were all economic outcomes that should be given equal weight to growth in economic planning) - how would you vote if there was a Scottish independence referendum tomorrow? 

Yes came back at 61% showing significant lifts in support for independence across all voter, gender and age categories. This was expected, as asking this question in April 2021 generated 59% Yes and in Feb 2023 56%, adding significantly to the base on both occasions. In 2023, we also asked 'if that Wellbeing Economic Approach included paying the Wellbeing Pension how would they vote?' and Yes hit 60%.

So we asked the Wellbeing Pension question: 

…If the Wellbeing Economics Approach (detailed above) also included a commitment to increase the basic state pension from £169.20 to a Wellbeing Pension of £241.50 per week, how would you vote if there was a Scottish independence referendum tomorrow?  

The response was a groundbreaking 66% Yes, a massive boost of 12% over the standard question.  

Q: Where does the increased support come from?

A: Everywhere. 

Every age and gender group records majority support for independence. 

The single biggest jump is with Females over the age of 55, this has always been the worst demographic for independence support and they jump 20% from 36% to 56%. That is Labour's core vote abandoning the party right there and that is reflected in the voter polling we will discuss later. However, it's not just people in the oldest demographic voting for a better pension. There is also a 12% increase in support from Females aged 16-34 from an already incredibly high 71% to 83%. Why? because that is the most caring and wellbeing focussed group you can poll.

NOTE: The SNP is fully committed to paying the Wellbeing Pension in an independent Scotland. This was passed by its conference and even made it to the small print of its 2024 General Election Manifesto - maybe it should have been a headline! 

English Born Voters Move to Majority Yes. 

Another group is English born voters (roughly 450,000 or 9% of the population). These voters have moved to Scotland for work or increasingly, just for a better life. A much misunderstood group of voters and given most of them were brought up in England and experienced a lifetime of Westminster dominated media and propaganda about Scotland, the fact that in the 54% response they were 39% Yes is pretty amazing. Recently, Believe in Scotland has been campaigning in the Borders Region and the larger number of English born voters I have found myself speaking with are actually very open to supporting independence once you share a positive vision about the nation we intend to create. So, it's no surprise to me to see the Wellbeing Economy and Pension Approach push English born voters Yes support up 17% to 56%. 

Labour and Reform Voters Move to Majority Yes Support

The only threat to the SNP in Holyrood 2026 (barring some highly improbable political machinations) is Labour and Reform managing to form a Government - seems unlikely, but the ever cautious SNP will not want to take any risks with their continued hegemony at Holyrood. Fortunately, this poll has some good and, in the case of Reform, slightly surprising news.  

We've always known that roughly a third of Labour voters support independence, in the 54% Yes response that number was 39%. However, once you add a Wellbeing Economics and Pension approach, Labour voters from GE24 move to 52% Yes. Reform voters, half of which are disgruntled right wing Tories and the other half anti-authority voters who will support anyone willing to dismantle the UK’s corrupt form of Government, also jump 12% to 52% Yes. 

So my advice based on this poll (and our previous Wellbeing Economy polls) is if the SNP want the opportunity to neutralise UK Labour’s Holyrood chances and stop Reform at the Border, then choose a path that appeals to half their voters - that means showing significant progress towards independence and a Wellbeing Economic Approach before Holyrood 2026.

What's the story here?    

These specific conditions move the polls significantly to YES, this is why it is so vital to the independence movement to ask these questions and to try to figure out if the reason independence was stuck at around 50% for so long is because we've been getting the message wrong all this whole time.

What if you can't sustain independence support at over 50% unless the nation has a shared creative and cultural vision of the type of nation we are trying to create through independence. What if the message that 'we will get independence first and then sort everything out after independence' means we will never get independence? What if the statement “Independence is about sovereignty, simply about the transfer of powers to Scotland so that all decisions that impact on Scotland are made in Scotland by people we elect" just appeals to the naturally nationalistic but translates to the undecided as just one load of politicians we don’t trust should have their powers handed to another set of politicians we don't trust - so what? Half the people who would vote No are not actually unionists, they are potential Yes voters that our messaging just hasn't engaged or emotionally connected with yet.

So how do we engage them? Can we ask them what they want? Can we map out the hopes and dreams of the Scottish people for a better nation and then afterwards talk to them about the best constitutional arrangement to delver what they want? Yes, we can - there is a plan to do just that and it's called the Citizens’ Convention. A new national conversation on Scotland's future and you can bet the bank that if we ask the people to co-create a vision for a better Scotland, their vision will only be deliverable if Scotland becomes an independent nation.  Then when we put it back to them in the form of a manifesto for independence, regardless of which path to independence that is taken, they will vote for it, because it’s their own vision.

Norstat Technical Note:

Client: Believe in Scotland  

Agency: Norstat

Universe: 18+ resident in Scotland (16+ for Holyrood and Independence voting intention)  

Methodology: Online (managed panel)

Sample size: 1,013  

Fieldwork dates: 04 December (after the Scottish Budget) - 06 December 2024  

Weighting: All the results were weighted by age, sex, 2024 Westminster election, 2014 independence referendum and country of birth.

If you would like to read more about the Citizens' Convention proposal click the image below!