New Poll: 56% Yes and General Election majorities for Yes in both seats and votes

BREAKING: A poll released this morning shows support for Scottish independence has soared to 56% in the wake of the UK Supreme Court’s ruling against a second independence referendum. These results demonstrate that the writing is on the wall for Unionism as a political project- the people of Scotland are both ready and willing to support independence.

The Scottish Political Monitor poll, conducted by Ipsos Mori for STV found that support for independence had risen by 6% between May and November. The results account for those who are likely to vote and when they are examined in detail, the majority for Yes becomes even clearer. Including those who voted ‘Don’t Know’ in answer to whether they would support independence, Yes retains a majority at 53%, with No at 42%. 

The poll also surveyed voting intentions at Westminster. If a General Election were called tomorrow, 51% of respondents would vote for the SNP, maintaining their majority share of MPs in Scotland. When these results are run through the Electoral Calculus model, 58 of 59 potential seats in Scotland would be won by the SNP, a larger proportion than even the party’s landslide victory in Scotland at the 2015 General Election. This is also remarkable stability for the SNP, who have been the main party of government in Scotland since 2007 (15 years in total).

However, the Scottish Government has announced that they intend to run the next General Election as a de facto independence referendum, after plans for a 2023 referendum were undemocratically blocked by the UK Supreme Court. Once these conditions are factored in, support for the SNP rises further to 53%, with the Greens at 2% and Alba at 0.47% meaning a total pro-independence majority of 55.5%. Voters in Scotland are not just rejecting a Conservative government, they are rejecting rule by Westminster altogether. 

Many people had denounced the strategy of a de facto referendum as risky, with Westminster leaders ridiculing the idea. This however does not seem to have dented support for independence in the slightest. In fact, the Supreme Court’s subversion of the people of Scotland’s democratic wishes appears to have instead galvanised support. 

Above all else, these results confirm what the independence movement already knew. Westminster did not just block another referendum because they thought Scotland legally was not entitled to hold another one, they blocked it because they knew that they would lose. Ironically, their attempts to stop it means that now they almost certainly will. 

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By Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp