NEW POLL RESULT - Would offering an independent Scottish republic increase independence support?

By Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp 

In response the recent Scottish budget, The Times commissioned a poll from Norstat (formerly Panelbase) on Scottish independence and found a significant six percent jump to 54% ‘Yes’ when asked the question ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’

Believe in Scotland have always used Norstat as our polling provider and we had a poll of our own going at the same time with the same panel of respondents. However, we asked questions around specific messages and policy areas so we could test how they impact on base independence support.

One of the questions we wanted an answer to is would offering an Independent Scottish Republic increase independence support?

Indeed, it's strange that the independence movement as a whole does not know the answer to this important question.  

It's the polling question people have been afraid to ask - despite an almost universal support for republicanism amongst Indy activists. In 2014 the message was don't rock the boat, keep the Royal Family, as saying otherwise will hurt the Yes movement, something that I went along with (despite being a committed republican myself and thinking it was a bad decision). The Queen, in my opinion, clearly stepped away from her duty to be politically neutral when she pointedly stated in front of the press that she “hoped the people would think carefully” and according to David Cameron “purred” when he called to tell her the news.

We now have a new and significantly less popular monarch. Scandals over profiteering from charity rents, Prince Andrew facilitating access for Chinese spies and indeed his links to Epstein and a £12m financial settlement to end a civil case alleging sexual assault, brought against him in the US. So now is the time to ask the question and open up a conversation about monarchy versus republicanism in an independent Scotland and to investigate what impact it might have on independence support.

The Big Question

We have a Norstat panel that has just responded 54% Yes and we want to know how that changes if we suggest an independent Scotland would be a republic - will support rise, suggesting we have some thinking and more research to do? Or will it fall suggesting that people want to end the union of the parliament but not (also) the union of the Crowns. 

So we polled the following question.

If Scottish independence meant that Scotland would be a republic - meaning the King would no longer be the head of state, so Scotland’s governance would be fully democratic and not a monarchy - how would you vote if there were an independence referendum tomorrow?

Republicanism moves independence support from 54% in the same poll to 59%. That's quite a jump and although roughly what my gut was telling me to expect, it’s also strange to see it confirmed after all these years of no polling on that issue. It throws up lots of questions, first being will this be repeated in future polls? Does this reflect the current generation of Royals or will William becoming King, with his more media friendly Queen, change things? 

We also need to consider what this would mean to the Constitution of an independent Scotland and even the transitional constitution because having worked on that as part of a group of independence campaigners and politicians a few years ago I was horrified by just how much of the constitution was related to with the powers of the Monarch and not led by democracy. So much so I couldn't personally put my name to the suggested draft interim constitution. 

We must also consider that many people who would choose an independent Scotland to be a republic might want to maintain the monarchy if Scotland didn't become independent. It is one thing to say that a newly independent Scotland should be a republic and another to say that if the UK continues, it should become a republic. In other words, it would seem ridiculous to design a monarchy based form of government if you were writing the constitution for a newly independent nation in the modern world. Lots to discuss but one thing is for sure, we should begin those discussions now. 

The devil is in the detail (with caveats).        

The datatables for the Norstat 54% poll make for interesting reading but with the caveat that as you look at segments of the poll the smaller sample sizes can throw up outliers. For example, the 54% Yes poll has a number that surprises me; 40% of people who voted Reform in Scotland at the 2024 General Election support Scottish independence. That suggests that Reform have more Scottish indy supporters in their ranks than the Conservatives at 21%, UK Labour in Scotland at 31% and the Lib Dems at 36%. More investigation needed. 

Change by Party (with Republic)

Looking at the Yes/No figures for ‘if independence meant Scotland would become a republic’ question, independence support from GE 2024 voters changes as follows. SNP +3 (98%), Reform +2% (42%), Conservatives +3% (24%), UK Labour in Scotland + 5% (36%) and the Lib Dems +7% (43%). So it seems that republicanism increases support for independence amongst supporters of every political party.

Change by location of birth (with Republic)

Support from Scottish born voters increases 3% to 60%, English born voters increase 8% to 47% Yes, and those born elsewhere (including Northern Ireland, Wales the EU and The Commonwealth for example) increases 15% to 53% Yes. The sample sizes for those demographics outside Scottish born are small but it chimes with movement in those demographics across a series of polls and questions I have commissioned over several years. In other words, I am telling you we can get a majority of English born Scots to support independence if we make the right offer - more on that in the next polling article. 

By age, gender and class (with Republic)

Once again, a republic garners more support for independence in every age group with the oldest (and most pro-union) males and females aged 55+ jumping 2% and 3% respectively. The biggest increases in the Males 35-54 increasing 10% and Females 35-54 increasing 9%. 

Middle class support for independence jumps 3% and working class support jumps 6%. Remain voters increase 5% and even those that voted to leave the EU increase 2%. Let’s spell it out - an independent Scotland being a republic not only takes independence support from 54% to 59%, it increases support for independence in every age group, gender, political party support, social class and place of birth category.

Norstat Technical Note:

Client: Believe in Scotland  

Agency: Norstat

Universe: 18+ resident in Scotland (16+ for Holyrood and Independence voting intention)  

Methodology: Online (managed panel)

Sample size: 1,013  

Fieldwork dates: 04 December (after the Scottish Budget) - 06 December 2024  

Weighting: All the results were weighted by age, sex, 2024 Westminster election, 2014 independence referendum and country of birth.

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